Welcome to the NFL Week betting 13 Lines article. We’re back from the holiday break. It was good to have family in but ended up with a house full of sick people, which isn’t the greatest.
What is great is it’s December, where every game is a big game if you’re a contender, and every game is do or die if you’re on the fringes of playoff contention (Oh, hi, Packers).
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Week 11 Review:
We may have needed a week off. Week 11 was a second straight rough week. ELO gets over .500 for the season.
Last week: My picks, 2 – 5 – 1; Analytics, 4 – 3 – 1; Best Bets, 1 – 1
Season: My picks, 28 – 41 – 3; Analytics 35 – 34 – 2; Best Bets, 12 – 16 – 1
Both sides of the ball matter when placing NFL bets, and Club Fantasy covers defense too. Check out You Down with IDP?, every Thursday at 7 PM EST.
NFL Week 11 Lines
(Standard disclaimer – All opinions are my own and may or may not reflect those of this website. “Analytic Lines” are ELO point spreads from fivethirtyeight.com, and “Vegas Lines” are courtesy of thelines.com, current as of the writing of this article. Predicted Line (“PL”) is my early week estimate of where the Vegas line would be set. Chosen games have a multiple-point variance between the Vegas and Analytic Lines.)
Game of the Week
Green Bay at Chicago – Analytic Line: CHI (+0.5), Vegas Line: CHI (+3.5), PL: CHI (+3)
We start with the Packers’ last stand. Aaron Rodgers will presumably start and play through injuries to his thumb and ribs to defend his ownership of the Bears. They may be mathematically alive for a playoff spot, but would Jordan Love really be that much of a downgrade from a compromised 39-year old?
The Bears get Justin Fields back, and if he’s truly good to go, he may run for 300 yards based on how the Packers “defended” Jalen Hurts Sunday night. David Montgomery ran over them back in Week Two. Unless Green Bay can fix their tackling issues over the course of a week, I expect more of the same. This game could get loose in the second half, I like the over, as well.
Pick: Chicago (+3.5); Best Bet: Over 44.5
New York Jets at Minnesota – Analytic Line: MIN (-6), Vegas Line: MIN (-3), PL: MIN (-3.5)
Another big game in the NFC North, this one with actual playoff implications. The Jets with “come meet the new boss, better than the old boss” backup QB Mike White against the 9 – 2 with a +5 point differential Vikings. The question here is exactly how good is Jets rookie CB Sauce Gardner.
If he can keep Justin Jefferson from dominating the game, the Jets should have the edge here. I’m betting he’s up to the task.
Pick: New York Jets (+3)
Washington at New York Giants – Analytic Line: Pick ‘Em, Vegas Line: NYG (+2), PL: NYG (+2.5)
The Giants’ last stand? It feels like they’re in free fall after losing back-to-back games to the Lions and Cowboys. The Commanders keep somehow winning games it seems like they’re out of. The extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving and home-field should be enough to get the Giants back on track.
Pick: New York Giants (+2); Best Bet: Giants Money Line (+105)
Seattle at Los Angeles Rams – Analytic Line: LAR (+2), Vegas Line: LAR (+7), PL: LAR (+7.5)
The Rams were a bad team before losing Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald to injury. They’re not much more than a speed bump now. They can’t take advantage of the Seahawks’ Achilles heel run defense, and DK Metcalf owns Jalen Ramsey as much as Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears.
Pick: Seattle (-7)
New Orleans at Tampa Bay – Analytic Line: TB (-5.5), Vegas Line: TB (-3.5), PL: TB (-6.5)
Didn’t we just have to watch New Orleans get rolled in a Monday Night game? How does a team this bad get multiple prime-time games? Tampa outclassed the Saints in New Orleans back in Week Two, so I think we can put the “Saints own the Bucs” narrative to bed. Most of that is based on Marshon Lattimore consistently eating Mike Evans’ lunch, but Lattimore is coming off injury if he even plays.
Pick: Tampa Bay (-3.5)