Welcome to NFL DFS Week 11! After several weeks of higher-than-expected chalk in DFS Cash contests, things finally seemed to come back down to earth. Typically, standard DFS Cash practice is to aim for at least 140 points to hit the cash line. But this season, it’s been 160 to 180 more often than not, with at least one player being roster by 50% to 90% of players at a time.
Hopefully, last week marked a return of Cash to typical trends. That said, it is clear that DFS players are getting sharper. As may be expected, this impacts the types of contests we should enter.
Now, you have heard me go on ad nauseam about scattering in head-to-head lineups and making sure to select your opponent to provide some safety for your lineups (See my Week 4 and Week 9 articles). But what about your 50/50 and double-up contests?
As the great Kyle Borgononi and Matthew Betz of the Fantasy Footballers recommend, we should also ensure to target 50/50s with larger field sizes. This seems counterintuitive because larger lineups lend to thinking you have to beat more people. Which isn’t wrong, but it also ignores another important factor.
Big or Small, We Cover it All
In Cash, we’re trying to account for the amount of variance in fantasy performances, both in our own lineups and in other people’s lineups. In smaller contests, there’s less variance by definition, as there are fewer possible lineup combinations you are matching up against. Lower variance decreases the odds your lineup will outperform half the field.
But in larger fields, the variance is much larger, as these contests attract seasoned and casual players alike. This helps us take advantage of a lower cash line and win contests that otherwise might bust.
All this to say, when thinking through your contest selection, mix it up and find what works for you. I recommend targeting large field 50/50 contests and head-to-heads, but if you’re finding more success elsewhere, stick to what is winning you cash. Then, if you have a few down weeks, maybe return to these tried and true strategies to get back on track. Just remember, it’s about having fun as much as it is about making money.
As always, my DMs are open for feedback and questions on Twitter and Instagram at @Austin_FFL.
Cash is in session.
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NFL DFS Week 11
CeeDee Lamb (DraftKings: $7,500 / FanDuel: $8,100)
Early in the season, I was very worried about the Dallas Cowboys. They looked awful in Week 1, and I thought their season was over when Dak Prescott was injured. And, of course, I thought CeeDee Lamb had the most to lose from this. The Cowboys made it work and are looking strong heading into Week 11. With Lamb receiving the lion’s share of the targets, he is a Cash consideration any given week. And this week, he faces the Minnesota Vikings, who give up the third most points to receivers. This game also has a one-point spread, so expect both teams to air it out down the stretch.
Dameon Pierce (DraftKings: $6,500 / FanDuel: $7,600)
Dameon Pierce has continued to be the lead back in Houston, averaging over 20 touches for the past several weeks. Despite this, the DFS sites have only slowly increased his pricing, probably because the Texans are the worst offense in the NFL. Their offense is not enough for me to avoid Pierce this week, as his price continues to be too cheap to pass, and Houston plays from home this week.
David Montgomery (DraftKings: $6,100, FanDuel: $6,200)
The timing of this selection couldn’t be better, as David Montgomery returned to practice on Thursday. While I have to admit Khalil Herbert has gotten more run this season than I would like, Montgomery has long been one of my favorite fantasy players. He’s often underrated but has recorded many Top 10 running back performances. Unfortunately, with Herbert hurt (yes, I like him — both can be true), Montgomery is set to be the workhorse again. This week, he faces the Atlanta Falcons, who give up the tenth most points to running backs. Time for Monty to get back to work.
Tyler Boyd (DraftKings: $6,500 / FanDuel: $6,800)
The theme of today’s article seems to be players stepping up because of injuries. Tyler Boyd is typically a volatile fantasy performer as the number three receiver in Cincinnati. But with Ja’Marr Chase still waiting to return from the injured reserve, Boyd has slotted into the number two spot. He faces the Pittsburgh Steelers, who surprisingly give up the second most fantasy points to opposing secondaries. When they played in Week 1, Boyd scored a touchdown, even when the Steelers defense was rolling.
Justin Jefferson (DraftKings: $9,100 / FanDuel: $9,100)
No, that is not a typo. Justin Jefferson is the same price on DraftKings and FanDuel. As always, that means there’s value to be had on the slate. With Kirk Cousins getting a good reminder of just how freaking good Jefferson is, I expect this offense to continue clicking and pushing the ball down field. Plus, once again, the Vikings are projected to be in a tight matchup, entering this game as one-point underdogs. I’m ready for a shootout, against a Dallas secondary that, while underrated, can be had. The primary concern for the game script is if the Cowboys are able to get pressure on Cousins, which would render the pass game useless. But this is Justin Jefferson people. Expect a big day in a high-scoring matchup.
Check the Chalkboard
Justin Fields (DraftKings: $7,600 / FanDuel: $8,700)
I am so happy about Justin Fields’ breakout. Going into this season, I was worried about him. Not because of his traits but because the Chicago Bears seemingly did nothing to support him to be successful. Yet, in Week 11, Fields is the fourth-best quarterback in fantasy football, and there’s no reason to think the Falcons are going to slow him down. He’s still not expensive enough not to start, and given how well he has been playing, there may not be a price point where I wouldn’t start him.
Jack Stoll (DraftKings: $2,500 / FanDuel: $4,400)
The tight-end position has continued to be absolutely brutal this year, and the fantasy gods continue to take away from us with the Dallas Goedert injury. But alas, here we are. The only bright spot is that now I get to talk about Jack Stoll and force our founder, Josh Hudson, to create a graphic for a player most people don’t know exists. The idea here is simple. The Philadelphia Eagles consistently target the tight end position. Stoll is now the #1 tight end in Philadelphia, and they face the ninth-worst team against tight ends. Save the cash and spend up elsewhere.
Back of the Classroom Studs
Joe Burrow (DraftKings: $6,800 / FanDuel: $8,300)
Week 1 feels like it was so long ago that we may not remember that Joe Burrow threw four interceptions against the Steelers in that opening matchup. That does not scare me away from him this week. The Bengals’ offense has gotten rolling, even with Ja’Marr Chase out of the lineup. In that Week 1 matchup, Burrow also threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns and ran for nearly 50 yards. That was enough to clear 20 points easily, which I’ll take from my quarterback any day of the week.
Brian Robinson (DraftKings: $5,300 / FanDuel: $6,600)
I think it’s time for us to feel confident that Brian Robinson is the #1 running back in Washington. Sure, it’s still a timeshare, and he isn’t getting upwards of 70% of the snap share, but he is getting plenty of opportunities to feel comfortable playing him in fantasy lineups. Now Robinson gets a Houston Texans defense that gives up the most points per game to opposing running backs. Need I say more?
Devin Singletary (DraftKings: $5,800 / FanDuel: $6,400)
I never thought I would be advocating to start a Buffalo Bills running back, but Devin Singletary has consistently been the lead back. Despite the cries for Buffalo to get a new running back, Singletary has looked good when playing. They don’t need another back. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns could use a new defense, as they give up the third most points to opposing running backs. Singletary won’t have the workload of your elite running backs, but he will give you enough opportunities to pay off at value.
Darius Slayton (DraftKings: $5,000 / FanDuel: $6,300)
Giants fans and fantasy managers alike have been trying to sort out which Giants receiver would break through as their true number one. Once we realized Kenny Golladay wasn’t it, we hoped Kadarius Toney would slot into that role. But then Toney was traded away, and Wan’Dale Robinson didn’t step up, so here we are with Darius Slayton. I’ve been surprised to see Slayton’s stock so low this season, as he has been a successful, albeit injury-prone, fantasy asset in the past. Either way, he has come along in the past several weeks, and that should continue against a Detroit secondary that can be exposed.
Isaiah Likely (DraftKings: $3,600 / FanDuel: $5,400)
If Mark Andrews doesn’t play, this is a no-brainer. Isaiah Likely has been as close to a full replacement as you could expect for the tight-end position. Even if Andrews plays, I will still have Likely in my lineup. He has continued solidifying his role in the Baltimore offense, and at his price, he needs just a few catches and a touchdown to pay off. That’s basically every tight end, but Likely’s pathway to achieving that is much clearer than similar tight ends in his price range.
Las Vegas Raiders (DraftKings: $2,500 / FanDuel: $3,200)
During the preseason, I was marking this game as a target for my tournament Best Ball lineups, expecting a shootout between the Raiders and the Broncos. Now, I’ll feel fortunate if we see either team score at least two passing touchdowns. As such, I think both defenses are good targets for DFS lineups, but I lean toward the Raiders simply because they provide a solid punt option with upside. The Broncos’ offense has continued to struggle out of the bye week, and the Raiders’ defense is scrappy enough to force some sacks and turnovers.
Philadelphia Eagles (DraftKings: $3,900 / FanDuel: $4,800)
Even though the Eagles lost to Commanders, their defense has still been stellar. Next, they face the Indianapolis Colts. I don’t think you need me to tell you that the Colts’ offense is bad — their offensive line is among the worst in the league. Sure, they pulled out a victory against the Raiders, but let’s be honest — the Raiders aren’t scaring anyone this year. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ pass rush is going to give the Colts problems, potentially forcing turnovers and opportunities for a ceiling day.
- A: Scored over three times their price
- B: Scored over two times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
|New Orleans Saints||$3,500||7||B|
*Replaced David Njoku when Njoku was ruled out
|New Orleans Saints||$3,900||7||C|
*Replaced David Njoku when Njoku was ruled out
Looking for more Week 11 NFL DFS plays with the best possible matchups? Our Weekly Matchup Report gives you that info every Wednesday.