We are eight weeks into the NFL season and already on our third author in this series! While Chris Molina takes some time off to be wildly successful in life, you’re kind of stuck with me. The good news is that I take these NFL player props almost as seriously as Chris, and I want you to win some $$.
Last week, using a strategy of focusing on defenses that allow the most yards, I hit on two 5-leg props and just missed on two others. For the week, out of 20 picks, I was correct on 15. Let’s see if I can keep that magic alive while making my choices public. If you’re new to this series, we give you our five favorite NFL player props from the Underdog app (Not a sponsor). To multiply your money, you can combine these into 2, 3, 4, or even 5-leg props. A successful 5-leg pays 20x your bet or 10x with insurance. So fingers crossed we hit 100% this week, but I’ll settle for 80%. Let’s get into it.
Week 8 NFL Player Props
Devin Singletary 53.5 Rushing Yards
My favorite prop this week comes from the Sunday Night game, so you’ll have to stay up late to see if you cash out. Coming off their bye, I fully expect the Bills to beat down the Packers, and Singletary should be heavily involved. Green Bay is giving up 122 yards per game to running backs, 3rd-most in the NFL, and has allowed eight running backs to hit 54+ yards in seven games this season. We’re taking the HIGHER here. Singletary is the lead back in Buffalo, handling 61% of the team’s RB carries. So far this year, he has only hit this mark once, but it was his Week 6 game, and I’ll bet on his recent success. Hopefully, Josh Allen doesn’t decide to do all the work himself this week.
DeVonta Smith 55.5 Receiving Yards
When a team that gives up a ton of receiver yards, like the Pittsburgh Steelers, is facing a team with two great WRs, like the Philadelphia Eagles, I like to focus on the player with the smaller win threshold. I like both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in this game, but Brown has to hit 69.5 yards, while Smith is 55.5. Give me the HIGHER. Smith has hit this mark in three of his last five games, but more importantly, the Steelers have allowed 11 WRs to go over 55 yards in just seven games. They allow the most yards to WRs in the league, and Philadelphia should be well-prepared coming off their bye.
Looking for fantasy football advice? Be sure to check out Big Travy’s Confidence Plays and our weekly rankings!
D.J. Moore 62.5 Receiving Yards
Is DJ Moore actually back? I’m betting so and taking the HIGHER here too. Noticing a trend yet? To borrow the words of Josh Hudson, ‘Who knew it was Baker Mayfield, Christian McCaffrey, and Robbie Anderson holding this offense back?” Moore has only hit this mark once this year, but it was last week as the focus of the offense. He finished his game against Tampa Bay with seven receptions for 69 yards and a TD. Tampa Bay’s secondary barely allows 150 yards to WRs on average, while Atlanta allows over 200. Maybe I’m being hyperbolic, but Carolina has no other WRs; there is a non-zero chance DJ Moore gets all of those 200 yards. But I’ll settle for 63, and Atlanta has allowed that 11 times in 2022.
Kenneth Walker 85.5 Rushing Yards
You guessed it, another HIGHER. This is a considerable number for the rookie, but the Giants allow almost 120 rushing yards to RBs on average, and Walker sees all the work for Seattle. And he has delivered. Since taking over as the starter, the rookie has posted yardage totals of 88, 97, and 167. He’s trending up, and this is his 2nd-best matchup of the season. Only three teams allow more yards than the Giants. One of those teams is the Chargers, and Walker just beat them for 167 yards. All in all, four RBs have hit this mark against New York, and none of them are having the season that Walker is so far. I think he is over 100 again in this one, easy.
Jared Goff 257.5 Passing Yards
Nothing like ending your article betting on Jared Goff. That’s right, another HIGHER! This is actually more about betting against the Miami defense or betting that D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown actually finish the game than betting on Jared Goff. But, no matter how you slice it, my hopes, and cash, are in Goff’s hands. While he has passed for over 200 yards in every game, Goff has only hit 258 twice this year, once against Seattle and the other against Minnesota. Neither of those teams gives up more yards than the Miami Dolphins. Miami has allowed 265 passing yards on average, and three QBs have crossed 257 against them. Kenny Pickett hit precisely 257 last week. Goff is no Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Joe Burrow, but I’ll bet he’s one yard better than Kenny Pickett.
You’ll notice that I focused on yards and HIGHERS. My reasoning here is pretty straightforward: Predicting TDs is hard, and who wants to bet on something not happening? While my strategy worked great on HIGHERS last week, it bombed on LOWERS. So combine these picks as you see fit, or fade them altogether. I put my money where my mouth is, so if four out of five hits, I’ll be making some money too! Good luck!
So much time is spent on offensive players, but we cover defense too. Check out You Down with IDP? every Thursday at 7 PM EST.