Last week was brutal. I read a stat on Twitter that fantasy scores are down 22% this year (I don’t know where the tweet originated, or I would give you credit). I read it, though, and it makes sense why we are struggling with our NFL player props so far this year: I make a lot of HIGHER picks, and there have not been a lot of OVERs on O/U lines. That should not deter us, though. It just made me think that we should have a theme for this week, and that theme is quarterback props.
So, I picked my five favorite QB props to talk about in this article. Like last week, the most confident prop will go first, and my fifth-most confident will go last. As always, it is up to you whether you want to fade me, bet with me, or just chat. You can try for the vaunted 5-leg parlay or just take any two. So let’s get into it.
Week 7 NFL Player Props
Matt Ryan 242.5 Pass Yards
Take the HIGHER here. Matt Ryan burned me earlier in the year when I included him in this article, but I am liking him in this situation. Ryan has hit the over in three consecutive games and four of six overall. Those are good odds. The last time they faced the Titans, Ryan passed for over 350 yards. Jonathan Taylor is trending in the right direction to play this week, but there’s plenty to spare here. In case you need a little more convincing, the Titans are the 32nd-best defense against the pass. They give up almost 290 yards per game through the air. Take the HIGHER.
Jacoby Brissett 218.5 Pass Yards
Take the HIGHER here as well. I am slightly less confident in this than in the Matt Ryan pick, but I still love this prop. Brissett has had 219 or more passing yards in his last five games. There’s not that much cushion (235 pass yards again in those five games), but he’s gotten the job done almost every week. They play Baltimore this week, and Vegas has the Ravens at about 26 expected points. The Browns are likely going to be down and have to throw. It also helps that the Ravens are 28th in pass defense. Take the HIGHER.
Derek Carr 1.5 Pass TDs
I would also take the HIGHER here. Carr has had two or more passing touchdowns in four of his five games this year. Ironically, the one game he didn’t hit the mark was the Raiders’ one win. That was against the stellar Broncos’ passing defense, though. This week it’s against the Texans. The Texans’ defense hasn’t been terrible this year. It’s average, to below average, in most categories. Vegas has the Raiders scoring about 26.5 points this week, though. That was a funny sentence. But Carr just needs two of those three projected TDs. Take the HIGHER.
Daniel Jones 195.5 Pass Yards
Take the LOWER here. Yeah, I mean it. Jones has had lower than this mark in four of his six games. One of his two over games was only 196 yards passing, so he barely hit it. The craziest thing about that is that the Giants are winning. They are 5-1, with Jones averaging 170 passing yards weekly. It’s so weird. So why stop the good vibes, then? It’s working. The Jags’ pass defense is 20th, but Jones has faced some bad defenses. It doesn’t matter. Take the LOWER.
Joe Burrow 285.5 Pass Yards
Take the HIGHER here. Burrow has only hit this mark in half of his games, which is why this one is shakier on my list. It’s more of a hunch. Burrow is coming off 300 yards passing against the Saints. It was easily his best game of the year. They take on Atlanta this week. Atlanta is 31st against the pass. They are putrid. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see Burrow have one of those blow-up games that he has from time to time. Take the HIGHER.
There you have it. Bet with me, fade me, or just come chat about the picks. Take all 5x or just two. It’s up to you. Good luck!
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