Do you know that feeling when you find a new fashion item you just couldn’t wait to pull out and impress all your friends, just to discover they already had caught on to the new trend? That’s what DFS was like in Week 5. The chalk play was through the roof, to the point I’m dubbing last week as Chalk- apocalypse.
Basically, if you didn’t start a lineup with Josh Allen, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, Tyler Lockett, and the Cowboys’ defense, you were below the cash line. The roster percentages were absurd with some of these players. In one DraftKings lineup I played, Fournette was at 65%, Kamara at 53%, Lockett at 54%, and the Cowboys at 63%.
All I can say would be kudos to you if you hit that 180 mark to get you the win in Week 5. It was tough out there, and if you came out even, you should feel terrific about yourself.
But what are we going to do this week?
NFL DFS Week 6
First off, as I’ll discuss later, I am most likely paying up for one of the top three to four quarterbacks. The leading players have significantly outperformed the rest of the pack, and as we saw last week, if you don’t have access to those players, you might just find yourself outside the cash line.
Then, we’re saving money at running back. There are many good options this week, including the likes of Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Raheem Mostert, and more discussed below. This running back value will help us pay up for the top quarterbacks and also give you the option to pay up at wide receiver or tight end.
At wide receiver, I’m aiming for a mixture of middle-tier options and punt plays. The main reason for this is that I want to pay up at tight end, and it’s simply not possible to go expensive at quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end. I will have a couple of lineups where I punt at tight end, enabling me to take one of the top three receivers, but in most cases, I prefer the sure thing at tight end. There’s just too much value at wide receiver to legitimize killing my budget.
Cash is in session.
Teacher’s Pet for NFL DFS Week 6
Stefon Diggs (DraftKings: $8,400 / FanDuel: $8,900)
What more can I say about Stefon Diggs? He is only being outscored by Cooper Kupp, has the fourth-most receiving yards, and is tied for the most touchdowns. Further, he scored double-digit points in DraftKings scoring in every game this season.
Now, he gets a Kansas City secondary that is giving up the sixth-most points to opposing receivers. You don’t need me or the betting line to tell you this is the most exciting matchup on the slate. Last year’s playoff battle between these two teams did that. The line for this game is set at 54. Buffalo is implied to score 29 of those points. Whether Buffalo plays from ahead or behind, or it’s a back-and-forth game, I expect them to air it out and continue to rely on their number one target in Stefon Diggs.
Geno Smith (DraftKings $5,700 / FanDuel: $7,400)
Look, we’ll talk about this more later, but there are only three or four quarterbacks you’re relying on in DFS; your usual suspects of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. But this article wouldn’t be interesting if I just told you that every week.
Instead, consider Geno Smith a way to pay down at quarterback and attack your lineup elsewhere. I was hopeful Smith could be a serviceable quarterback this season, but he has played beyond my expectation, averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game. And I love this matchup against an Arizona Cardinals defense giving up the fifth-most points to opposing quarterbacks. This is the second-highest line on the slate at 50 points, and it is expected to be a close one, with Arizona favored by 2.5 points. Time for Geno to cook.
Devin Singletary (DraftKings: $5,900 / FanDuel: $5,700)
With Devin Singletary this week, we’ve got something rarely seen. He is priced lower on FanDuel than DraftKings. What’s going on here? That’s suspicious.
I used to avoid the Buffalo Bills backfield altogether. But this season, Singletary has been the clear lead back. And to underline that point, I went to FantasyData to look for snap shares among Buffalo running backs. Once I filtered for Buffalo, I thought something was wrong. Devin Singletary was the only player there.
Then I realized their platform automatically filters for players with at least 20 snaps per game. And then I cackled. Yes, Singletary is the only Buffalo running back averaging at least 20 snaps per game. And in that high volume, high scoring offense, those are valuable opportunities. So FanDuel, I don’t know what you’ve been smoking this week, but I’m taking the discount (and the money) and running with Singletary.
Rhamondre Stevenson (DraftKings: $6,000 / FanDuel: $7,500)
Rhamondre Stevenson made this column last week, and wow, did it pay off! And yet, he is still only $6,000 on DraftKings. Even more importantly, his opponent, the Cleveland Browns, has given up 440 rushing yards over the past two weeks. Most of those were to the Los Angeles Chargers, who aren’t a grind-it-out offense. I frankly didn’t know they had it in them.
With Damien Harris likely out again this week, Stevenson is poised to be the primary running back against the third-worst defense against running backs. Fire it up.
Tyler Lockett (DraftKings: $5,600 / FanDuel: $7,500)
If you won some money in cash during Week 5, you likely had Tyler Lockett in your lineup, who scored 30.4 DraftKings points. And it didn’t cost you much, as Lockett was priced at $5,600 on DraftKings. And yet, he is still $5,600 on DraftKings! This isn’t a Monday Night discount. This is just straight-up disrespect from DraftKings. And I get it; I’ve typically advised people to avoid Lockett in fantasy because of the emotional roller coaster of having him on your roster.
But this is 2022, and Geno Smith is cooking. Tyler Lockett only scored single-digit fantasy points in Week 1. Since then, he’s averaged seven catches and 95 yards per game. If he does that, he will fully pay off at value on DraftKings. Apparently, FanDuel got the memo and priced him up this week. Even at $7,500 on FanDuel, I’m willing to start him, as this game against Arizona is expected to be high-scoring, and Lockett has been a favorite target of Geno Smith, as he should be.
Before you set your Week 6 NFL DFS lineups, be sure to check out Austin and Ryan’s weekly rankings!
Check the Chalkboard
Josh Allen (DraftKings: $8,200 / FanDuel: $9,200)
This is one of the weirdest fantasy seasons I can recall. I never expected to have a quarterback as my chalk play. But the elite quarterbacks have been a step beyond the rest of the crowd this season.
This was evident in Week 5, where you likely did not make the cash line if you didn’t have Josh Allen in your lineup. I believe that will balance out throughout the season, but until then, I’m going to aim to have Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Jalen Hurts in at least half of my cash lineups. Depending on the matchup, I would also consider including Patrick Mahomes in that group.
But this week, Allen has my favorite matchup against a Kansas City secondary that can be had. Kansas City will likely use blitzes and pressure to try and disrupt Allen throughout the game, but he is currently playing at an MVP level and can handle the heat. So take the safe play with Allen.
Rondale Moore (DraftKings: $4,200 / FanDuel: $5,600)
Believe it or not, I also love this game on the Arizona side. But, unfortunately, this is a matchup where I think the data can be somewhat misleading. The Seattle Seahawks are the fifth-best team against fantasy receivers, giving up just 29.2 points per game to opposing receivers. But this is about the fact that teams have been running all over Seattle, not that they have a stellar secondary.
Plus, if there’s a wide receiver who could take advantage of poor run defense, it’s Rondale Moore, who has been known to be used on jet sweeps in this offense. Moore has an increasing role in this offense, and I’m looking for him to turn that into a solid performance on Sunday.
Back of the Classroom Studs for NFL DFS Week 6
Zach Ertz (DraftKings: $4,900 / FanDuel: $6,000)
You may be wondering why I’m talking about any tight ends not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Simply put, you don’t need me for that. You already know those are the league’s two most reliable tight ends. Instead, I’m here to provide other options and dig a layer deeper. I’m most likely trotting out Kelce or Andrews in well over half of my DFS lineups. But for those that I’m looking elsewhere, Zach Ertz is a prime target.
Ertz matches up against the Seattle Seahawks, who have given up the most points to tight ends this season. And yes, some of that is because of Taysom Hill. But remember that week T.J. Hockenson was the top scorer in fantasy football? That was against the Seahawks. As mentioned earlier, this is one of the highest lines on the slate, suggesting we are in store for a high-scoring affair. Ertz is a prime candidate to benefit from game script.
Jeff Wilson (DraftKings: $6,200 / FanDuel: $7,200)
I’ve avoided being on the Jeff Wilson train for as long as possible. The center of the biggest fantasy football controversy since the Taysom Hill dual-eligibility debacle, Wilson has been a certified stud in place of the injured Elijah Mitchell. Now he gets the opportunity to run over my Atlanta Falcons, who are bottom ten against running backs. The 49ers are five-point favorites in this game, so they will rely on Wilson to run out the clock and run up the score.
Tyler Boyd (DraftKings: $5,100 / FanDuel: $6,000)
Tee Higgins is likely to be out or limited on Sunday, positioning Tyler Boyd as the number two receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. Additionally, they matchup against the New Orleans Saints, who have been surprisingly bad against receivers, giving up the eighth-most points through five weeks. And while Marcus Lattimore doesn’t always shadow the number one receiver, Ja’Marr Chase will surely receive plenty of attention, opening up more opportunities for Boyd.
Mike Evans (DraftKings: $7,000 / FanDuel: $7,700)
This one is simple. It’s Mike Evans catching passes from Tom Brady. And I get it. This season has not been the TB12 experience we are used to. But these are still two of the best players in the NFL. They play the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have given up the most points to receivers this season.
Further, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 26 implied-point total. They will likely use Mike Evans, who has almost half of Brady’s touchdowns this season, to get there. And frankly, if I’m Tampa Bay, I’m running up the score if I’m ahead. This offense has a point to prove, so I’m not afraid of them getting ahead and just running out the clock—time for this team to get right.
Will Dissly (DraftKings: $3,100 / FanDuel: $5,000)
We’ve discussed this matchup ad nauseam at this point, but it’s worth discussing once more. The Arizona Cardinals are giving up the second-most points to opposing tight ends, and Will Dissly has been a frequent piece of the Seahawks’ offense throughout the season. He has caught at least two passes every game and has three receiving touchdowns on the season. Particularly in DraftKings, Dissly is cheap enough to deserve a start. I’m more likely to stick with Andrews or Kelce on FanDuel, as tight ends aren’t priced down as much.
Evan Engram (DraftKings: $3,500 / FanDuel: $5,200)
Despite giving the Houston Texans their first win, I still believe in this Jacksonville Jaguars offense. Evan Engram has received a decent amount of attention, being targeted on eight or more occasions twice this season. Engram has yet to score a touchdown, but that is sure to change as the season progresses. Oh, and did I mention one of those eight-target games came against the Colts in Week 2? And that the Colts opened the season, giving up two touchdowns to O.J. Howard? Time for Engram to get his.
San Francisco 49ers (DraftKings: $3,700 / FanDuel: $4,700)
I’m willing to pay up for defense, mainly when it’s against my Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has been one of the lowest-volume teams in the NFL, so I’m not worried about them running up the score. Additionally, San Francisco has been averaging at least an interception and three sacks per game. I’m counting on them to continue this trend and help my Falcons get that No. 1 overall pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars (DraftKings: $3,000 / FanDuel: $4,300)
Look, I was in on the Colts this year. I thought they were decent last year and just needed a better quarterback. But their offensive line is awful. Matt Ryan has repeatedly been under pressure and is not athletic enough to evade sacks. Because of this, he has provided many fumble opportunities, which is the kind of opportunity I’m looking for in my streaming defense.
Last week was incredibly hit or miss with several A’s and F’s. It obviously didn’t help to have Teddy Bridgewater go out on the first play, but alas, that’s the nature of DFS. Overall, I feel good about most of our running backs hitting and picking the number one defense last week.
- A: Scored over three times their price
- B: Scored over two times their price
- C: Matched their price
- F: Scored lower than their price
*Left early due to injury
*Left early due to injury
Looking for the Week 6 NFL DFS plays with the best possible matchups? Our Weekly Matchup Report gives you that info every Wednesday.