Confidence Plays | Fantasy Football Week 6

Start Em Sit Em Week 6

Is it just me, or is the wait between Thursday and Sunday football getting longer and longer? I don’t think these terrible Thursday Night Football games are doing us any favors. So allow me to help fill that time between our Thursday and Sunday slates with some confirmation bias on your start/sit conundrums in Week 6. 

Now that we are five weeks in, more data reveals itself to us. Going forward, my confidence plays will involve a three-pronged approach. 1. Is he good? 2. Is his environment good? 3. Is the matchup favorable? It is never personal with these players; I just want to give us all the best shot to score the most points every week. 

As I will do every week for this article, I am using the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings to bring you, players, in ranges where the start/sit conundrums exist. Your RB2, WR3, and FLEX positions. Here are the ranges in which I will try to live when writing this column each week:

QB ECR: 10-20 | RB ECR: 20-40 | WR ECR: 20-40 | TE ECR: 10-20

With that, I will bring you my confidence plays and fades for this week. Again, my goal here is to give you plays and fades beyond just your obvious studs & duds. Good luck!

Week 6 Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em

PLAY

QB Geno Smith ECR QB#10, vs AZ

Geno? More like Ge-YES! I could sit here and point out all of Geno’s advanced metrics and quarterback stats behind his successful 2022 campaign, but the fact of the matter is he is playing lights out both in fantasy and in real football. Smith now has two or more TDs and 21+ fantasy points in four of five games this year. I don’t see that stopping this week against Arizona, especially since the Seahawks have the ninth-highest team total on the Week 6 slate. 

RB AJ Dillon ECR RB#25, vs NYJ

I know it’s getting harder and harder to trust Dillon and the Packers’ offense with each passing week, but I really like his outlook in this game. Dillon is coming off a measly six touches against the Giants in London, but before that game saw 14 or more touches in every previous game this season. After there was some talk in the Green Bay media this week about two batted-down passes to close out the loss to the Giants, I expect the Packers to recommit to their running backs this week against a middling Jets rush defense as seven-point home favorite his Sunday. 

RB Eno Benjamin ECR RB#27, at SEA

Uno may be the Spanish word for one, but Eno looks like the Cardinals’ number one this Sunday. As of this writing, James Conner is being speculated as out this week and maybe more with a rib injury opening the door for Eno Benjamin to assume the lead-back duties. What a matchup for Benjamin to walk, or should I say, run into. Only four teams allow more points per game to fantasy running backs than Seattle’s 25.6. Seattle has also given up 654 rushing yards through the first five weeks, which ranks as the second most in 2022. 

WR Chris Godwin ECR WR#20 vs PIT

This feels like cheating a bit, given that Godwin’s ranking is right on the cusp of my threshold, but this is just too low of a ranking for one of Tom Brady’s favorite weapons. Since returning from injury, Godwin has been dominating Tampa Bay’s slot and amassed 16 targets over the last two weeks. He has topped six catches and cleared 50 yards in each contest as well. This week seems like a blowup spot to me, with Pittsburgh currently allowing over 41 fantasy points per game to enemy wide receivers making them the friendliest opposing defense to the position. 

WR Jakobi Meyers ECR WR#28 at CLE

Looking at roster percentages, Meyers was likely on your waivers this time last week. In his return from injury, Meyers had a massive game, catching seven passes for 111 yards and a touchdown last week against the Lions. In fact, in three healthy games this year, he is averaging seven targets, six catches, and 87 yards. I like Jakobi this week against a Cleveland defense allowing 27 points per game to wide receivers. 

TE Evan Engram ECR TE#10 at IND

Evan Engram is the epitome of the tight end position in fantasy. What I mean is he has incredible usage metrics like 75% snap share and around 91% route participation this season. He has an 89.9 QBR when targeted as well. He just has not gotten home as much as we would like, given just how this offense has sputtered as of late. I like that to change this week. The last time the Jags played the Colts, Engram saw eight targets and caught seven of them. This is the week the numbers behind the scenes actually marry the on-field and fantasy football production. 

If you have more Week 5 Start Em, Sit Em questions, join us tomorrow at 11 AM EST on Start Sit, Different Day. We spend an hour doing nothing but answering your most pressing lineup questions!

FADE

QB Russell Wilson ECR QB#12, at LAC 

I understand better than most that it’s hard to quit Russ, but it must be done. Wilson has failed to crack 20 fantasy points in all but one game this year, and that is in six-point passing touchdown formats! Russ also has just four touchdowns on the season and three interceptions. It is just not working out for the Broncos’ offense so far this year, and although the Chargers’ defense is banged up, they are still middle of the pack with just 18 FPPG allowed through five weeks.

RB Najee Harris ECR RB#20, vs TB

Has there been a more disappointing fantasy performer than Najee Harris? After we took him in the first or second rounds of our drafts this fall, he has failed to rush for more than 75 yards in any contests and has just one rushing touchdown this year. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look good for those numbers to grow this weekend against a Bucs defense that allows the second-fewest points to opposing running backs in fantasy. 

RB James Robinson ECR RB#23, at IND

I am well aware that in this very article earlier this year, I told you all to stop doubting James Robinson, but that is precisely what I am prepared to do. Through his first three weeks, he averaged 19 touches per game, but since then, he has been averaging just 10 touches in his past two. J-Rob has failed to eclipse 30 rushing yards or 50% of the team spans in that same span. I think we are watching Travis Etienne cap Robinson’s upside, if not take over this backfield completely. Robinson should only be counted on in the most desperate of situations. 

WR Diontae Johnson ECR WR#24 vs TB

I am not picking on Steelers fans, I swear. However, right now, the overall volatility of this offense is affecting all its members, including Johnson, who is catching just 56% of his targets this season, a career low. I am confident that Kenny Pickett can give this passing offense a chance to rise above its recent production, but this week doesn’t have a rosy outlook. The Buccaneers are bottom-ten in points allowed to wide receivers in fantasy football this year. 

WR Drake London ECR WR#25 vs SF

Speaking of sputtering offenses, Drake London and the Falcons have a date with the San Francisco 49ers this week. San Fran currently surrenders the sixth-fewest points per game to wideouts this year. Couple that with London averaging just 5.6 fantasy points over his last two games, and I am not looking to get London in my lineups this week. We are getting further and further away from the version of London that was averaging 17 PPR fantasy points in his first three games of 2022. 

TE Taysom Hill ECR TE#11 vs CIN

This is a terrifying take. I advised many times on our YouTube channel last weekend to steer clear of Taysom Hill. That blew up in my face as the gadget rattled off four touchdowns and won those brave enough to start him their matchups undoubtedly. I just can’t trust him. He has yet to play over 30% of the team snaps in any game, and he isn’t really used as the tight end they list him as. We also have reports of Jameis Winston being back at practice, and if any of the banged-up wide receivers were to play, I could see this being a lower snap game for Taysom against a tough Cincy defense. 

Good luck this week. If you need additional help, we have Ryan’s Streams of the Week to help you get that Week 6 win!