Week 2 was not good. We only hit two NFL Player props. One lesson learned: I don’t think Matt Ryan is a good quarterback anymore. The Colts may have actually downgraded from Carson Wentz (lol). That’s not what led to the weeklong hiatus, though. The eight-to-five has its moments of pure exhaustion.
However, we are back with five new props and a fresh mindset. You know the drill. They are all either higher or lower. You must hit all five to collect. That is unless you use Underdog’s new feature, insurance. Insurance allows you the ability to collect if you only miss one, and you collect at 2.5x. The tradeoff is a 10x win if you hit all five props. It’s 20x when you hit all five without insurance. It’s something to consider if you wish. Anyways, let’s get into it.
Week 4 NFL Player Props
Michael Carter 45.5 Rush Yards
Take the LOWER here. Yes, it’s our first lower of the season. We just talked about the fresh mindset. Here, Michael Carter has had fewer than 40 yards rushing in each of the last two weeks. He’s also gone from 50 to 43 to 38 snaps in the three weeks too. It’s trending south.
Meanwhile, Breece Hall went from 19 snaps in Week 2 to 40 last week. Breece looks good on the ground and through the air. So, yes, the Steelers may be one of the worst run defenses in the league so far, but I am not betting on what looks to be the 1B in this committee now, especially with Zach Wilson back at QB. Take the LOWER.
Christian McCaffrey 63.5 Rush Yards
Take the HIGHER here. There, that’s more familiar. Yes, I do know that betting on anything HIGHER with this Panthers offense is murky. They do not look good. However, the running game with CMC is one aspect of their offense that looks good. CMC has had over 100 yards rushing in both previous weeks. In Week 2, he only had 15 carries, but in the Panthers’ first win last week, he had 25. They play the Cardinals, who give up over 100 yards per game on the ground. Each week the leading rusher against the Cardinals has had at least 60. If the Panthers want to win again, CMC will hit the over. I like the HIGHER here as a result.
James Robinson 68.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
SMASH the HIGHER here. James Robinson has been an absolute revelation. Are we even sure he tore his Achilles last year? He has hit the over on 68.5 total yards each week. In Week 1, Robinson had 69 rush + receiving yards. Week 2 was 78 total yards. Last week was 116. He’s also trending in a good direction, with 22.5 touches a game in Weeks 2 and 3. The Eagles’ relative weakness is its run defense. They are 18th in the league. So, I love this prop no matter what the game script is. HIGHER!
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Josh Allen 38.5 Pass Attempts
Take the HIGHER here too. Josh Allen had 63 pass attempts in Buffalo’s first close game of the year. He’s averaging 44 pass attempts a game on the season. They are also playing the Ravens this week, who look AMAZING on offense. Lamar Jackson is back at an MVP level. The Bills’ defense is incredibly beaten up. The Ravens have the worst pass defense in the league. I fully expect this to be a shootout. It’s a 51-point O/U. That means six total touchdowns implied. I really like the idea of Allen hitting the over here as a result. Take the HIGHER.
Jalen Hurts 310.5 Total Yards
Take the HIGHER here too. This is my favorite prop on the entire slate. Jalen Hurts has been playing at an MVP level this year, and the Eagles are 3-0. He has hit the over on 310.5 total yards in all three games. In Week 1, his 90 rushing yards put him over the top. He hasn’t even needed his rushing yards in the last two weeks to hit the over on this total. He is averaging 336.5 passing yards a game and is completing passes at a 72.7% clip in the last two weeks. This is incredibly good. The Eagles play Jacksonville this week. The Jaguars are the stingiest run defense in the league. The Eagles will need to pass like they have been to beat the Jags. Of course, it helps that Hurts also runs. Take the HIGHER!
There are your five props. You can bet with me, fade me, hedge your bet with the insurance tool, or you can find me on Twitter just to chat about the props. Whatever you want! We all love just talking about fantasy football anyways. Good luck!
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