DK Metcalf is coming off two consecutive 129-target, double-digit touchdown seasons. It’s also a contract year. A contract year following a complete market reset with WRs like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown, and Christian Kirk (lol) getting massive deals. Under normal circumstances, Metcalf should be seeing dollar signs either this offseason or next.
However, this offseason has been anything other than normal though in Seattle. As a result, there is a wide range of outcomes of which to expect from Metcalf in 2022. The first concern is his current mini holdout. You should probably avoid Metcalf in redraft this year, though. Let’s explain why.
Note: No Punt Intended will air on Wednesday, June 15th, with Special Guest Clinton Holmgren from IDPGuys! We will be covering the Seahawks, Commanders, and Vikings.
DK Metcalf in Fantasy Football
There is a new era in Seattle. The future Hall-of-Fame quarterback that led them to their first Super Bowl win is currently donning orange in Denver. (Yes, Russell Wilson was traded away for those of you living under a rock.) The Seahawks did not draft any of the rookie quarterbacks either. They had plenty of chances to take Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, and/or Matt Corral, yet walked away with zero quarterbacks from the class. Despite constant rumblings (mainly around Baker Mayfield), they have also not dipped their toe in the veteran QB trade market. Seattle may be eyeing C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young next year. However, it seems like the Seahawks are content with Drew Lock or Geno Smith for DK Metcalf’s contract year.
What happens if Smith wins the job? Metcalf had a 17-game pace of over 79 receptions, 1,116 yards, and 17 touchdowns with Smith throwing his way last year. The touchdowns are high, and they would most definitely come down. However, he finished the year with 75 receptions, 967 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He was the WR14. As of right now, his ADP is WR15 on Sleeper. That’s probably as high as it will go, as it still has remnants of the DK Metcalf with Russell Wilson. In other words, right now, you are drafting him at his ceiling. That’s the best-case scenario.
Drew Lock is the worst-case scenario.
Jerry Jeudy may have had 113 targets as a rookie in 2020 with Lock. However, he only had a 46% catch rate. A lot of the balls thrown his way were not catchable. There was also no Courtland Sutton. Speaking of Sutton, in 2019, he was on his way to a borderline top-12 finish. His pace before Lock was 77 receptions for 1,286 yards and six touchdowns. After Lock took over, Sutton was the WR26 but only WR45 in the last month of the season. At Metcalf’s current ADP that has bust written all over it. Stay away if Lock is the QB this year.
Let’s not forget about Tyler Lockett; he’s not going anywhere. Lockett has had at least 107 targets each season in the last three years. He is averaging 90 receptions and nine touchdowns per year. So one could argue that he and Wilson were two peas in a pod. However, when Smith was the QB, Lockett had 26 targets to Metcalf’s 23. So even if we think Metcalf will get the more valuable targets with Smith, Lockett could still outproduce him. That’s not what you want when you draft Metcalf at his ceiling.
Moral of the story? You should probably steer clear of Metcalf in redraft this year. Seattle refused to draft Ridder or Willis. They traded away a likely first-ballot Hall of Fame QB. The Seahawks didn’t trade for a veteran. They are planning their future. They have an eye on the 2023 draft. Their plans may not include Metcalf. It already seems like he’s holding out for a new contract. (And it is well deserved, especially in this market.) That just muddies the water for redraft, though. Best case scenario? He returns value with Smith. Worst case scenario? He’s a mega-bust candidate with Drew Lock.
A Look Inside the Seattle Seahawks
Editor’s Note: We asked our writers to focus on one player, but we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. While Chris focuses on DK Metcalf in fantasy football, here is a quick look at the rest of the Seahawks, prepared by either Josh Hudson or Ryan Weisse
Drew Lock/Geno Smith: You don’t want either on your team. Seattle threw the ball 2nd-fewest in the league last year and ran the fewest total plays with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Either of these two is a substantial step-down, and we can expect a stepback for fantasy. -Ryan Weisse
Ken Walker: A running back selected in the 2nd round? More often than not, that means he’s going to see touches. A lot of them. And probably sooner rather than later. Former 1st round pick Rashaad Penny finished 2021 on an absolute tear, finishing the year with over six yards per carry. But Penny’s injury history could open the door for Walker, and if the fantasy industry gets their way, he won’t relinquish the role. – Josh Hudson
Rashaad Penny: Over the last five weeks of the season, Penny was the overall RB1 in fantasy. He ran well, he scored touchdowns, and he did everything we thought he would do as a former 1st-round pick. The talent is clearly there, but will he stay healthy? You can probably land him as a late RB3, so there is not much risk but plenty of reward! -Ryan Weisse
Tyler Lockett: It’s hard enough to trust one wide receiver on a run-heavy team with a bad quarterback…but two? No, thank you. Lockett needs efficiency and volume, and, putting it bluntly, that isn’t coming from the current QB room. Lockett was the WR41 in the games that Wilson missed last season. This year, he is just going to miss Wilson. -Ryan Weisse
Noah Fant: We’ve seen Pete Carroll target the TE position once while he’s been in Seattle, and that was after they traded for Jimmy Graham. Well, Fant is a similarly athletic TE and is coming off two straight years with over 90 targets. Will this offense shift targets to him with Metcalf and Lockett still around? Sadly, I wouldn’t bet on it, especially with this offense’s reluctance to regularly target the position. – Josh Hudson
We hope you enjoyed our look at DK Metcalf for fantasy football this season. You can find all of our A Look Inside articles here!
If you’re prepping for your dynasty drafts, you can also find our rookie consensus rankings here if you’re preparing for your dynasty drafts!