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A Look Inside 2022: Welcome Breece Hall | Fantasy Football

The New York Jets offense was grounded last year. No flights all season. Zach Wilson was bad and the run game was awful. Elijah Moore showed flashes, but it was clear the Jets needed more. But, of course, the Jets knew this too.

They drafted Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall (the subject of our article). Next, they beefed up their offensive line by signing left guard Laken Tomlinson. This pushes 2020 first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker to the right-guard spot. They also signed CJ Uzomah and Tyler Conklin to beef up their tight end position. Finally, it seems like the Jets may actually have some flights leaving LaGuardia this year.

However, as much as I would like to talk about the whole team, I was tasked with writing about a single player on this offense. At least, that is what my bosses told me. The Jets were the worst rushing team in football last year.  In the early second round, they drafted Breece Hall as the first running back off the board. Hall is the subject of this article, let’s dig into his fantasy football prospects.

Note: No Punt Intended will air on Wednesday, June 1st, with Special Guest Howard Bender from Fantasy Alarm! We will be covering the Jets, Giants, and Panthers! 

Breece Hall in Fantasy Football

Breece Hall scored extremely high in a lot of measurables. He ran a 4.39 40-yard dash. That’s in the 97th percentile. His college dominator rating landed him in the 95th percentile. The college dominator score measures what kind of market share of rush attempts, targets, or both, that the player had on their own team. Breece had a 94th percentile score or better in his speed and burst scores. He grades out really well. In fact, he grades out so well that Player Profiler has his comp as Jonathan Taylor. Those are big shoes to fill, but many of his stats at Iowa State back that up.

Breece Hall averaged over 1500 rushing yards in his last two seasons at Iowa State. He also averaged over 5.7 yards per carry in the process too. That is massive production and efficiency too. It’s not on Jonathan Taylor’s level (over 6.3 yards per carry). However, Breece Hall did this at a below-average Iowa State. Breece also had 82 receptions in three years at Iowa State. Jonathan Taylor had half of that. Breece had two consecutive years with 20+ rushing touchdowns. Taylor only did that during his final year in Wisconsin. This isn’t to say that Breece is on Taylor’s level. It just shows that the comp makes sense. Hall is in for an exciting start to his career, even if he’s the discount, Jonathan Taylor.

How will Breece Hall fit in on the Jets?

The New York Jets desperately need Breece Hall. As mentioned above, the Jets were the worst rushing team in the NFL. They only had 380 attempts. That was good for dead last in the NFL. There is a reason for that. Their running back room included Tevin Coleman’s ghost, Ty Johnson, and rookie Michael Carter. Ty Johnson has yet to average more than four carries per game. Carter, a fourth-round pick, did not look like a home run pick. He looked ok, but he was only given 147 rush attempts. That was fewer than Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, and LaMichael Perine combined. The latter trio had a measly four yards per carry—the entire RB-room combined for seven rushing touchdowns. Let me repeat that. The Jets RB room had seven rushing touchdowns. Hall had 21 last year at Iowa State.

The Michael Carter dynasty managers will wrongly try to make you believe Breece Hall being drafted by the Jets is terrible for Hall. They drafted Michael Carter on Day-3 in 2021, so what more do you need? In the last paragraph, I outlined how the rest of the RB room for the Jets was terrible last year. Carter still essentially split targets with Ty Johnson (they both had 55). However, the Jets targeted Ty Johnson 17 times last year on third downs. Carter only had eight. Ty Johnson had more attempts, too, on third down. It’s clear that the Jets preferred Johnson on third down.

So who’s to say that Carter assumes that role now instead of Hall? Remember, Hall had 82 receptions at Iowa State. Inside the 10-yard line, Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson combined for 12 attempts inside the five. They only scored twice. That’s also very interesting for Hall, who had over 40 rushing touchdowns in his last two seasons at Iowa State.

What does this mean for Hall’s 2022 outlook?

The NFL average was 452 rushing attempts. Let’s (generously) say they have 452 rush attempts in 2022. For my projections, I did not even give Hall 50% of those attempts, as I went with a conservative 219 attempts. For his yards per carry, I went with 4.5, which would have been a team-best in New York last year. I gave him 48 targets, despite Ty Johnson’s 55 last year. The team would still have about the same amount of targets going to the RB position as last year. Finally, I only gave him ten touchdowns for the RB that had 40 touchdowns in his previous two years at Iowa State. That would have still put him in the top-12 of RBs last year. That’s not bad. That’s not bad at all.

Currently, Hall’s ADP is the RB-22 as per Sleeper. You can draft him right now in the middle of the fourth round. That is quite the bargain for someone who clearly has a path to the top-12 with a conservative projection. There is also a world where Breece Hall makes Michael Carter completely irrelevant. This entire thought experiment was to show Hall’s path to the top-12 can coincide with Michael Carter having the same amount of work last year. It goes without saying that Breece Hall will be on all of my draft boards come draft season.

A Look Inside The New York Jets

Editor’s Note: While we asked our writers to focus on one player, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the rest of the Jets, prepared by either Josh Hudson or Ryan Weisse

Zach Wilson: Wilson’s prospects were not looking great after a VERY bad rookie year. With just 2300 yards, only nine TDs, and 11 interceptions, he was not as advertised as the 2nd pick of the draft. The retooled weapons make him more interesting in 2022, but it will take massive improvement for you even to consider him in a 1-QB league. – Ryan Weisse

Michael Carter: Carter’s year-end stats were solid for a 4th-round pick, but he was only fantasy relevant in about half his games last year. That was competing against Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. With Breece Hall now in town (see above), Carter is likely an afterthought. – Ryan Weisse

Garrett Wilson: Rookie wide receivers tend not to perform well early and have an overblown ADP. While Wilson is my rookie WR1, unless you can land him as your WR3, he will be a risky prospect in fantasy. The Jets would prefer to run the ball, and there is a lot of competition for targets. Perhaps more importantly, I’d like to see a better Zach Wilson before I buy any Jets’ receivers. – Ryan Weisse

Elijah Moore: Moore’s established relationship with Wilson may make him the safest pass-catcher for the Jets in 2022. In just 11 games last year, Moore finished with 77 targets, and seven targets per game put him at a pace for around 120 targets. That would make for a solid WR2 fantasy season. If he were to take over the slot role full time, we could see even more (Moore?), and a back-end WR1 season in PPR formats is possible. – Ryan Weisse

Corey Davis: No player’s fantasy prospects depend more on who gets the slot role than Corey Davis. If the Jets want Moore in the slot role, Daivs gets to play outside. More importantly, he will be the 3rd target, and Davis plays way better when he is not the WR1. Targets may be hard to come by, but Davis could score 6-8 TDs if he is the lone big-body WR on this team. – Ryan Weisse

Braxton Berrios: If Moore does not take the slot role, Berrios will become a very interesting player in PPR. With Jamison Crowder out of town, Berrios is a natural fit for the role, but if the Jets want to play Wilson/Moore/Davis, then Berrios is the odd man out. On 65 targets last year, Berrios caught 46 balls for 431 yards and two TDs. He needs the volume but is unlikely to get it. – Ryan Weisse

CJ Uzomah: Uzomah will play a similar role to the one he left in Cincinnati. The Jets have plenty of talent at WR, a solid RB, and will not throw the ball a ton. The significant difference is the drop-off from Joe Burrow to Zach Wilson. Uzomah could easily repeat his 50/500/5 season, but that would mean another TE20 finish, and he is not worth your time in fantasy. – Ryan Weisse

We hope you enjoyed our look at Breece Hall for fantasy football this season. You can find all of our A Look Inside articles here!
If you’re prepping for your dynasty drafts, you can also find our rookie consensus rankings here if you’re preparing for your dynasty drafts!