We did pretty well last week. If you followed the advice, it would have given you a shot to finish in the money. It’s just, how was I supposed to know the Steelers would force-feed Najee the rock when down by 30 all game? That team is a mess. However, that brings us to the penultimate week of the season. Yes, Week 17. People are in a fantasy championship this week. If you’re like me, though, you are already thinking about next season in terms of season-long leagues. In the meantime, let’s win some money. As usual, five props coming at you. Let’s get started.
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Note: All projections given are from Club Fantasy co-host Ryan Weisse.
Top Five Thrive Fantasy Week 17 Player Props
Tyreek Hill 83.5 Total Rec. Yards
Our only UNDER on the slate. Tyreek Hill has failed to hit 84 receiving yards in six of his last seven games. His average yards per game is only at 74 on the season. They do get the Bengals this week who are one of the worst passing defenses in the league. However, Travis Kelce is most likely back. Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle have been effective. Also, the Chiefs are taking advantage of the dump off game, sending 22 targets in the last three games to the RB position. It may just be that the offense is becoming more balanced. Ryan Weisse is projecting 94 yards for Tyreek Hill. I am sticking to my guns of the under though and the 100 points that come attached to the under.
Tom Brady 2.5 Total PASS TDs
Take the OVER here. There are 130 points available for the over. That many points available surprised me at first. It does make sense, though. Brady has only thrown three passing touchdowns in his last three games. However, the Buccaneers have scored 30+ points in five of their previous six games. The touchdowns are coming, just not from Brady’s arm recently. That could change against the Jets. The Jets are giving up a league-worst 29.9 points per game and are near the bottom in total passing defense as well. Ryan is projecting three passing touchdowns for Tom. I believe the only way he doesn’t hit the over is if they amass a ton of rushing touchdowns. That could happen, but 130 points for the over is enough for me to bet on Tom.
Matthew Stafford 2.5 Total Pass TDs + INTs
Take the OVER here as well. This might be my favorite prop in the entire slate. This prop is passing touchdowns + interceptions. Stafford has combined for at least three of those in ten straight games. Stafford has also combined for at least three of those in 14 of his 15 games this season. This is true even during the Rams losing streak, because of the interceptions. Stafford on the season has averaged over two passing touchdowns a game and about one interception. They are facing the worst passing defense in the league this year. The Ravens just gave up over 500 yards passing and four touchdowns to Joe Burrow. Ryan is projecting four passing touchdowns and one interception for Stafford, so a combined number of five. The best part is that Thrive is giving up 115 points for the over. SMASH that over.
Cooper Kupp 0.5 Total Rec. TDs
We are staying in the same game for another OVER. This “two Rams” prop strategies worked last week. It should work this week too. Kupp has 14 touchdowns in 15 games this year. The Ravens just gave up three touchdowns to Bengals receivers. Also, like mentioned above, the Ravens are the worst passing defense in the league. If Stafford hits the over on the above prop, then it’s fair to assume that Kupp should get at least one. Ryan has him projected with one of the four touchdowns from Stafford. Let’s continue to enjoy this historic season. The over is only worth 90 points, but it is a confident over.
AJ Brown 0.5 Total Rec. TDs
Finally, take the OVER here as well. AJ Brown was on the field last week for the first time since mid-November. He put up a measly 11 receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown. His season this year has been mired in injuries. However, when he is on the field, he is a threat to score. He has 21 touchdowns in 35 career games with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. This isn’t counting the games that he left early due to injury. They play the Dolphins this week. Miami has won seven straight games. However, their opponents have included the Jets (2x), the Giants, Panthers, and Texans. Not exactly a gauntlet. The Titans are also trying to wrap up the division and stay in the hunt for the bye week. Chances are, if Tannehill has passing touchdowns, one will go to AJ Brown. Ryan is projecting a touchdown. Take the over and the 110 points.
A whopping 545 points for these five props. I do half the work for you here (and then some). Happy New Year!!
If you enjoyed Chris’ Week 17 Player Props and looking for more betting action, Joel Wirth’s Blurred Lines breaks down the Vegas betting lines each week!