Last week was the lowest of lows. Only one out of five props were correct in Week 11, and injuries only really played a part in the AJ Brown prop. However, for the Thanksgiving slate, I bounced back in a good way (you’ll have to trust me). Now it’s time to get us back in the money for the main slate. You know the drill—five props coming at you this week, with a mix of overs and unders. Let’s start with the unders.
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Note: All projections given are from Club Fantasy co-host Ryan Weisse.
Jonathan Taylor 91.5 Rush Yards
Taking the UNDER here is probably my boldest take of the five props. Jonathan Taylor has had more than 91 rushing yards six of the last eight games, including the previous three. He’s been on an absolute terror. However, they have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, and word on the street is big Vita Vea should be a go for the middle of the Buccaneers line. That’s a big deal considering the Buccaneers are far and away the best rushing defense in the league with Vita healthy. The only RB that has been even over 90 yards against Tampa was Khalil Herbert many weeks ago. Ryan Weisse projects Taylor to have 86 rushing yards against this defense. I agree, and I like the under for 90 points.
Adam Thielen 70.5 Receiving Yards
Take the UNDER here as well. Adam Thielen averages 62.4 receiving yards per game this year (meanwhile, Justin Jefferson is over 90 per game). He has had 70 yards or less in six of his last nine games. It’s a good bet to continue this week as they play the 49ers and that 3rd ranked passing defense. Ryan is projecting 74 receiving yards for Thielen, so he disagrees. However, he has Cousins passing for nearly 300 on this 49ers defense. If they have that good of a passing game, then Thielen probably hits that mark. I am not projecting that big of a game, though. The under is worth 80 points here.
Ryan Tannehill 0.5 Total INTs
Take the OVER here. Tannehill has already thrown 12 interceptions this year. He has only had four games where he has not thrown an interception. This isn’t the Tannehill of the last two years that we are seeing. To make things worse, they are playing the New England Patriots this week. The Patriots have forced a league-leading 18 interceptions. They have forced 16 total turnovers, too, in the last seven weeks. This defense is absolutely rolling. Tannehill is still missing Derrick Henry and Julio Jones. AJ Brown was also ruled out too. The over is worth only 75 points for a reason. Ryan is projecting three total interceptions. One interception here is as close to a layup as you can have in a slate.
Tom Brady 295.5 Pass Yards
Take the OVER here as well. Tom Brady has thrown for at least 296 yards in six of his ten games this season. This includes two of Brady’s last three weeks. The Colts’ offense has been rolling lately, so one can easily foresee this being a shootout. The Colts are susceptible to being beat by opposing wide receivers. Therefore, a group with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should be a fair bet to carry Brady past the 296 yards needed to hit the prop. Ryan is projecting Brady to hit 316 yards this week. The over is worth 95 points, so it’s well worth the pick.
Matthew Stafford 2.5 Total Pass TDs + INT
Take the OVER here as well. In fact, I would say to take the over with confidence. Stafford has hit the 3 Pass TDs + INTs mark in nine of his ten games so far. Even in the last two games for the Rams, where they got mauled, Stafford had two interceptions and one TD in both. So a good or bad Stafford is a good bet to hit this over. Insert the Green Bay Packers. The Packers’ defense just got absolutely mauled by the Vikings to the tune of 341 pass yards given up and three total pass TDs. I would expect Stafford to hit this mark, including any possible interceptions. Ryan expects this from Stafford as well, to the tune of two passing TDs and two INTs. The over is worth 80 points.
There are 420 points up for grabs with these five picks. It may not be as much as other weeks, but it’s still great to build that foundation. Of course, one can go bigger and get more possible points in the other five picks. Good luck!