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Thrive Fantasy Player Props To Exploit | Week 11 Main Slate

Last week was rough.  Between injuries and players being out due to COVID-19 related protocols, that didn’t leave our five props with much wiggle room.  Also, I guess this is what you get when you include Big Ben, huh? That’s my fault. Let’s just pull a Men in Black and forget that Week 10 ever happened, though.  This week we have five more props headed your way, and I tried my best to avoid any potential injury and health concerns. Let’s get started with the unders.

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Note: All projections given are from Club Fantasy co-host Ryan Weisse.

George Kittle 6.5 Total Rec.

Take the UNDER here. Hitting 6.5 total receptions is a high line that Kittle has only crossed once.  That was all the way back in Week 3.  Yes, the 49ers are playing the very vulnerable defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Yes, when healthy, George Kittle is one of the best tight ends in the business.  However, there are a lot of mouths to feed.  Deebo Samuel Is lighting the world on fire this year.  Aiyuk, while finally finding his footing, does also look good.  The 49ers are also a run-first team.  Taking the under here is not a knock on Kittle. It’s more of a nod to the kind of team that the 49ers are and the number of weapons they have.  Ryan Weisse agrees in his projections,  projecting only five receptions.  The under is 85 points here.

D’Andre Swift 0.5 Rush TD’s

Take the UNDER here as well. D’Andre Swift only has three rushing touchdowns this year. He’s coming off a 130-rushing yard performance, but it was the other running backs that scored for the Lions.  So, it’s kind of a toss-up on whether he will score here. Touchdowns are the hardest thing to predict.  This is especially true considering Jared Goff might not play, and they are playing a generally solid rush defense in the Browns, albeit beatable as of late.  Ryan is projecting a score, but only 13 total carries.  With the Jared Goff injury and the fact that you get 115 points for the under, that tips the scale for me.  (Remember, it’s not total touchdowns – it’s rushing touchdowns).

A.J. Brown 0.5 Total TDs

Take the OVER Here.  I know he hasn’t scored in the last two weeks.  However, the Rams and the Saints have defenses that are worlds better than the Houston Texans.  Also, AJ Brown has DOMINATED the Houston Texans in his career.  He has had at LEAST one touchdown in every single career game against the Texans. That’s a total of six in four games.  There is no reason to think that that won’t continue this weekend.   Ryan is projecting a touchdown here, and it’s 110 points for the over.  That seems like a good bet.

David Montgomery 75.5 Total Rush Yards + Rec. Yards

Take the OVER here as well.  In David Montgomery’s first game back, he played in 85% of snaps and looked great. He finished with 80 total yards in that game.  Montgomery has had at least 76 total yards in four of the five games he’s played this season.  They play the Ravens this week. That’s a tough matchup for Montgomery on the ground.  However, that didn’t stop Samaje Perine and Dalvin Cook from having 76 yards or more in their matchups with the Ravens.  Ryan is projecting 85 total yards for Montgomery.  You should, too, and take the 100 points while you’re at it.

Najee Harris 1.5 Total TDs

Finally, take the OVER here.  This is a bold prediction as Najee Harris has not had a multi-touchdown game so far in his short career.  However, he has had at least one touchdown in five of his last six games, and you’ll get 135 points if he cashes in on the over this weekend.  The Steelers play the Chargers.  Los Angeles has the worst rush defense in the league, and it is not even close.  The Chargers have also given up two or more touchdowns to the opponent’s RB position in four total games so far.  Najee Harris IS the RB position for the Steelers.  Ryan is projecting two touchdowns for Najee this weekend.  Taking a chance on the 135 points for one prop is huge. Let’s hope it hits!

You’ll get 545 points for these five props this weekend. Let’s have a great Week 11.