Well, we missed on the Chiefs and Titans game in a big way last week. That’s what happens when you go all-in on one game of props. It’s either a big win or a big loss. So, let’s change things up and go back to what was working earlier in the season. Yes, that’s right. This week’s props include some under bets. Keep reading for my favorite five props of the week. Time to right the ship before you start betting against me (even though I did hit on both non-KC/Titans props).
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Note: All projections given are from Club Fantasy co-host Ryan Weisse.
Najee Harris 80.5 Total Rush Yards
Take the UNDER here. Najee has failed to hit this rushing mark in four of his six games this season. This is still true despite Najee hitting this mark in the last two games. The confidence in the under lies with their opponent. That’s because they get the Cleveland Browns this week. The Browns are the number two rush defense in the league, only giving up 80.4 total rush yards per game to opposing teams. They have not given up more than 71 yards in any game to any single running back. You take the Browns and add Najee’s measly 3.8 yards per carry, which should equal less than 81 rushing yards this weekend. Ryan Weisse has Najee at 76 rush yards. Take the under and the 90 points.
Alvin Kamara 79.5 Total Rush Yards
Take the UNDER here too. Kamara has fallen short of this mark in his last two weeks. This is despite two Saints victories. Now they have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to deal with in Week 8. The Buccaneers are the only rush defense better than the Cleveland Browns (67 rush yards allowed per game). Tampa is humming on offense also makes one believe that the Saints will likely be playing catch-up all day and using Kamara in the passing game. Ryan has Kamara at 78 total rushing yards, so technically, Ryan agrees with the under as well. The under is worth 105 points.
Joe Mixon 0.5 Rush TDs
Our first OVER of the article. The 5-2 Bengals get to take on the New York Jets this week. It really is a reward. The Jets are the 25th ranking rushing defense in football. Also, in their six games, the Jets have given up a whopping 11 total rushing touchdowns. Insert Joe Mixon. He has four rushing touchdowns on the year for a Bengals offense that is firing on all cylinders right now. They just hung a 40-burger on the Ravens’ defense. This should be a walk-in-the-park by comparison. Ryan Weisse is projecting the rushing touchdown for Mixon. You should, too, and take the 90 points while you’re at it.
Ezekiel Elliott 91.5 Total Rush Yards + Receiving Yards
Take the OVER here as well. Elliott has had five consecutive games of hitting this over of 91.5 rush yards + receiving yards (“total yards”). Vegas is giving the Cowboys a lofty 28 point expected total against the 26th ranked run defense in the league. Ryan is projecting 108 total yards for Zeke in this one, so there is room to spare. The over here is worth 90 points. Take those 90 points against a team that gave up 61 rushing yards to Chuba Hubbard and over 100 total yards to D’Andre Swift the week before.
Tom Brady 2.5 Pass TD’s + INTs
Take the OVER here to close out the five props. Tom Brady has gone nuclear on everyone this year. He has had at least three passing touchdowns in four of seven games this year. If you factor in the game where Brady had two touchdowns and one interception, that makes five out of seven games where Brady has hit the over in this mark. The Saints are a tough defense, but the Buccaneers are expected to score about 27.5-points in this game. Brady just needs two passing touchdowns and an interception, or some sort of combination of the two. Ryan is projecting three total touchdowns and an interception for Brady. That’ll work. Take the 80 points.
455 points up for grabs this week from these five props.