Happy Saturday, everybody! I’m already thinking about how we have just one more sleep until Week 7. Does anybody else get this damn excited? Like it’s Christmas eve every Saturday night and Christmas morning every Sunday? I’m sure you do because we live for this stuff, and we are proud as hell rolling out our Rashaad Penny’s and Devonta Freeman’s slotted in at the running back position for our re-draft leagues to survive the bye-apocalpse. So thank God for DFS to save us from the ugly lineups because we have some really great values this week that we need to touch on.
We finally got back on track last week, crushing picks again like we always do. The chalk did not prevail so I finally get my lungs free and clear of the dust that tried to settle there in Week 5. They just can’t keep us down for long, people, and while the DFS and Chill podcast had to take a back seat to some personal life obligations this past Thursday, I promise you aren’t missing out on anything because all of that information is right here. I mean, you do miss out on seeing me and Ryan Weisse’s mugs, but you could probably use a break from that. We will, without question, be back this Thursday, October 28th, at 6 pm EST before Halloween weekend, where I plan to be going out dressed like a millionaire after these value picks help get us one step closer to winning that milli-maker. I’m pulling up to the podcast like Jalen Ramsey in a brinks truck, and everybody’s coming with me, so let’s get to it and go kash out so we can get rich this week!
There was no DFS and Chill show this week, but we’ll be back with special guest John Hesterman next week! Subscribe to our Youtube channel to make sure you don’t miss anything! You can also check out our DFS Matchup Report to help you make those tough lineup decisions.
Matthew Stafford (Draftkings: $7,100 / Fanduel: $8,100)
It’s revenge game week, and the stage has been set for a few players, most notably for Matthew Stafford going up against his former beloved, the Detroit Lions. This is where it’s fun to create a bit of a narrative in your DFS lineup because how can we not just sit here and think Stafford wouldn’t want to absolutely light up the Detroit Lions? You know what would be even sweeter? If Jared Goff has a little bit of a revenge game in himself to make this thing interesting. But, even if he doesn’t, let’s be honest, Matthew Stafford is an absolute value play at his salary once again and is just too cheap not to throw him into your lineups this week.
The Los Angeles Rams are a damn 15 point favorite–15 points, people! They also have a 33-point team implied total, and yes, I’m sure a chunk of these points will come on the ground, and we love Darrell Henderson this week., but I’m not going to be so naive to think Stafford, who’s thrown for nearly for 300 yards every game this season, isn’t still going to get it done through the air. Because hey guess what? Sean McVay does not care, and with something to prove, he will have no problem running up a score. So realistically, what is stopping Stafford from putting up 300+ yards and three touchdowns this week? Because I know it’s not going to be the Detroit Lions passing defense whose been getting torched all year. So Stafford will get his once again, and he provides to be a safe play this week as a slight pay-down option with a safe floor and a strong opportunity for a great fantasy day.
Jalen Hurts (Draftkings: $6,900 / Fanduel: $8,300)
In my best Cris Collinsworth impression, “Now here’s a guy who may not always put up big impressive performances out on the field, but he finishes with impressive fantasy numbers every single week.” He just finds a freakin way to do it, man. Death, taxes and Jalen Hurts with QB1 production. Because just when you think he’s going to finally come down to earth and put up a terrible fantasy outing, he goes and does it again! I feel a little like Donald Trump, saying it like this but believe me, no one knows better than me about how bad the Eagles’ offense has looked this year. But this is why Hurts has been so productive for fantasy. They have just been funneling their whole offense through Jalen Hurts and making him create plays with his arm and legs, so he has to play catchup when the score gets away from them.
The Las Vegas Raiders have been doing pretty well lately and should keep the game interesting, which should also keep Hurts busy. This one looks to have sneaky shootout potential. So good or bad. Rain or shine. Jalen Hurts has a safe fantasy floor and high fantasy ceiling on any Sunday, so we always look at him whenever he is valuable. Hurts will continue to be a DFS steal so long as the pricing wants to correlate with his real-life production. I like him especially this week, for basically that reason because the consensus just thinks that this guy stinks, and so they may not play him for that reason, and the low ownership can help give your lineup an edge! Pro tip: Love to stack him with Dallas Goedert this week.
Honorable Mention: Ryan Tannehill (Draftkings: $6,400 / Fanduel: $7,600)
Deep Sea Dive: Matt Ryan (Draftkings: $5,700 / Fanduel: $7,300)
Cordarrelle Patterson (Draftkings: $6,300 / Fanduel: $8,000)
The cool thing about Patterson on these platforms is that you can play him as the true dual-threat he really is by either slotting him in as you’re running back or putting him in at wide receiver. Pretty badass to have that flexibility as we did with Taysom Hill for one week at the tight end position. But man, is he the real deal or what? I think many people just don’t know what to make of this situation because who knew a 30-year-old special team kick return specialist would come into this Atlanta Falcons offense and just dominate the fantasy football world. Patterson so far this year is Draftkings RB10 and would slot in as the WR15. It’s honestly pretty damn impressive, considering he’s been doing this with a less than 50% snap share before this past week.
He is a little boom-bust, but he’s had double-digit fantasy outings every week since Week 1. He’s absolutely crushing his expected fantasy point totals, and he can easily pay off over on Draftkings as a value. I’m not so crazy about him on Fanduel because they’ve priced him up to fit the fantasy production. But regardless, this week, he’s going up against the Miami Dolphins, who are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. They also aren’t really crushing it against wide receivers either. However, you want to paint Patterson, everybody gets a piece of the pie versus this Miami defense right now. Patterson saw 60% of the snaps in Week 5 and logged 14 carries and nine targets for seven receptions. He’s getting plenty of opportunities in this offense who’s been desperate for a big playmaker. I think it’s time we start valuing Patterson as a legitimate fantasy option this year and not just a fluke.
D’Andre Swift (Draftkings: $6,000 / Fanduel: $7,100)
From what we talked about above, we have to assume that the Los Angeles Rams will just absolutely pummel the Detroit Lions. They will need to keep up, and as per usual, Swift is a beneficiary of that same scenario they find themselves in week after week. Swift finds himself to be a value here yet again because his upside is just way too good for his price point. His target share is too good to ignore at the running back position, and in places like Draftkings who use a full PPR format, that’s huge! Swift has scored double-digit points in all but one game so far this season. The guy is really good! He’s had three touchdowns over his last five matchups, so the touchdown upside is always there. I understand some may be wary of the Los Angeles Rams defensive matchup, but please don’t be because they will need to get the ball away quickly and feed Swift with targets to make plays in this game. This isn’t anything we don’t already know because I talk about this with Swift every single week, so for as long as they price him right, you’re going to find him here. He should beat out his price point in player production once again.
Honorable Mention: Miles Sanders (Draftkings: $5,100 / Fanduel: $5,900)
Deep Sea Dive: J.D. McKissic (Draftkings: $5,000 / Fanduel: $5,700)
Calvin Ridley (Draftkings: $6,600 / Fanduel: $7,300)
Calvin Ridley wreaks of positive regression to me this week in a matchup against the Miami Dolphins. He’s so close to his breakout game for this season I can almost taste it. Believe me, I know he’s been a disappointment to you in you’re season-long leagues, but we only have to take a shot on him once if we want to here in DFS land, and this is the week to do it. Ridley has been targeted a bunch of times this season, whether you’ve been able to notice it or not, because his fantasy outings haven’t really brought it to our attention.
Aside from Week 5, where he was out for personal reasons, Ridley has been targeted 8, 10, 11, and 13 times. There is only one lousy touchdown this season despite seeing eight red-zone targets, which ties the team for the lead with fellow teammate Kyle Pitts who has one extra game on Ridley. The Miami Dolphins secondary, which used to be a strong position against wide receivers, has suddenly become an area of weakness. The Dolphins are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and the 4th most passing yards per game as well. The Dolphins also allow a touchdown 62.5% of the time in the red zone, so if Ridley continues to see that red zone usage, then we are in a good spot that he can finally get his touchdown this week. I really like Ridley at this price, and if he can’t get it done here in this matchup and at this price to help boost your lineup, then I’d be shocked.
AJ Brown (Draftkings: $6,300 / Fanduel: $7,000)
Ah yes, here is my Monday night pricing glitch find of the week…AJ Brown. Unfortunately, we knew it wasn’t going to be King Henry; after he has been absolutely tearing the league apart, he’s a whopping $11,000 over on Fanduel. Who the heck is paying that? To be honest with you, probably a lot of people, but to get away from the chalk, why not go with AJ Brown in this matchup that has the highest implied over/under on the week set at 56.6? I also wasn’t born yesterday and know, just like the other guy I have listed above, that Brown has been a major disappointment thus far. He has battled through injury, and then god forbid the guy gets some Chipotle because he had acquired a bout of food poisoning. He still played through his stomach issues and actually had himself a decent game last week to remind us it’s not all so bad, and Brown is going to be just fine. We also have Julio Jones dealing with an injury yet again and could be out of this contest versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Inevitably that should mean more targets headed Brown’s way.
His game script is just too good to pass on him at this low price range because while the Chiefs may have bumped some of their defensive stats after last week’s game versus an awful Washington Football Team… their secondary has been awful. They’ve given up 277 passing yards on average, which we know isn’t great, but to put it into context, they’ve also been bleeding points to the rushing game as well. They just aren’t doing very well at stopping much, so while I think Derrick Henry will have himself a colossal game like he always does. I’m still certain that Ryan Tannehill will need to be feeding Brown to keep up, considering both of these teams carry some of the worst defenses in the league. Trust the talent of AJ Brown to win out in this dreamy matchup that could present a bounce-back spot for him.
Honorable Mention: Chris Godwin (Draftkings: $5,900 / Fanduel: $6,700)
Deep Sea Dive: Rashod Bateman (Draftkings: $3,400 / Fanduel: $5,300)
Kyle Pitts (Draftkings: $5,900 / Fanduel: $6,100)
Jesus, did I really just start my last three skill positions with an Atlanta Falcon? I guess the matchup just appeals to me this week because there are only two games on this slate that boast an over/under of 50+. So I’m totally cool with targeting games like the Atlanta Falcons vs. the Miami Dolphins. They have a 47.5 over/under to have potential with bad defenses that I think are capable of helping hit the over. So here I go creating narratives again, but I’d like to believe Tua Tagovailoa is sick of the rumor mill of Deshaun Watson trade talks and that he comes into this game guns blazing, ready to show the world why he was a top draft pick.
So aside from the thinking that this will be a higher scoring game than what is being implied, Kyle Pitts is in a good spot here with the Dolphins giving up the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Especially after his little breakout game last week, we can have a little more confidence with him moving forward because although Ridley wasn’t in the lineup last week, he still sees a good target share even with Ridley in the game. So it was only a matter of time before we saw him get comfortable in the NFL and provide us with the fantasy production we’ve been waiting for. I’d also like to add while I do like the Atlanta Falcons offense this week, I don’t think it’s ideal for stacking multiple players in this one. If I’m playing Calvin Ridley, I’m probably out on Pitts or Patterson, but I don’t mind bringing back with someone like Jaylen Waddle. That is because I don’t know if Matt Ryan is still the same kind of quarterback who can sustain multiple fantasy finishes on all levels for these players, but fingers crossed that he does for the sake of the article.
TJ Hockenson (Draftkings: $5,100 / Fanduel: $6,200)
Someone will have to stop the bleeding for the Detroit Lions in this game, and I’m willing to bet TJ Hockenson will be one of those dudes who try and help bail Jared Goff out. Last week we saw Hockensen come back to life a little, gathering 11 targets. He’s back to playing as the Lions’ head target leader on the team, and if there are any weak points in this Rams defense, it’s actually versus the tight end position. The Rams have given up the 10th-most receiving yards to the position while also giving up the 12th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, so the matchup isn’t too shabby. He’s a pretty easy pick for me here at a value where the game script calls for his help in this one.
Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert (Draftkings: $4,600 / Fanduel: $5,900)
Deep Sea Dive: Zach Ertz (Draftkings: $3,900 / Fanduel: $5,300)
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (Draftkings: $3,400 / Fanduel: $4,800)
Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team (Draftkings: $3,300 / Fanduel: $4,100)
Honorable Mention: Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans (Draftkings: $3,100 / Fanduel: $5,000)
Deep Sea Dive: New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers (Draftkings: $2,500 / Fanduel: $3,600)