It’s a good thing that I only have to write and not physically speak to all of you on Saturday mornings because I’m still over here trying to clear my lungs of the enormous amount of chalk dust that built up from this past Sunday slate. It is what it is, people. We have been absolutely dominating these value picks over the last few weeks, and we finally hit a little bit of a wall because I’m not able to tell you to play guys like Derrick Henry or Tyreek Hill for top dollar prices! My job would be so much easier if I were able to say, “Hey, I think that Travis Kelce guy could really help your lineups this week.” Who would even read my articles If I got all the freakin’ easy ones?!
Let me take all the chalky plays, slap my name on it, and call it a day. I would have so much credibility with all the correct answers that way, but that’s not the name of the game here. We aren’t perfect, people, and I’m also totally cool with being transparent and admitting when I’m wrong. For example, last week, I whiffed on a value such as Antonio Brown or hesitated to fit Courtland Sutton into my article because I was scared off by the rolled ankle that occurred in practice right before the game. Then I missed on guys like Kadarius Toney because I thought Golladay was a better play, and he wound up injured, as did a couple of the plays we suggested last week. I won’t lie. No matter what, even looking back, I would’ve never thought to suggest Davis Mills going up against Bill Belichick, and even if I were able to rewrite last week’s article and think the whole thing over, I still wouldn’t suggest him.
But I also need to start listening to my own advice as well because I literally almost talked myself right out of suggesting Sam Darnold to you and decided to stick with the process because I did so much research that I didn’t want it to be all for nothing. So enough of that crap, I’m only putting my best foot forward and done with the overthinking. It’s something we all do, and I’m only human as far as I’ve learned, so the growing pains will occur from time to time. It’s a bounce-back game, baby, and I’m not going to sit here licking old wounds like a sorry sport. This Sunday slate is jam-packed with a ton of value plays that I don’t want you to miss out on, so the intro is going to be kept short and simple today. The lesson we can take from it is just get ready for the next play. Life isn’t always going to hand you the perfect game script, so control what you can control and do better next time. What am I even saying, and who do I think I am, Aristotle? What do I know about life? I only smash DFS value plays. Let’s go Kash out!
Justin Herbert (Draftkings: $7,300 / Fanduel: $8,000)
If you have been a fan of Kyra’s Kash Grab article since last year, then you already know Justin Herbert is a familiar face in this space because I had him on here just about every single week since he took over under center. Now we get to see him here again because, let’s be honest, sometimes Draftkings just doesn’t respect a player who is on the come up in fantasy, and that’s fine because we will just keep on taking advantage of it like we did the first couple of weeks with Jalen Hurts. But unlike Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert is real-life good at football. I mean, really damn good.
The new marriage with him and head coach Brandon Staley will be a beautiful union for years to come. He’s thrown for three or more touchdowns over the last three weeks and good lord, does this game look set up for points galore. The over/under is set at a healthy 51.5, and say what you want about whatever you think about Baltimore’s defense. Still, when they face a team with a competent quarterback and good receiving corps, they are getting ripped apart. To be quite honest with you, I think the Chargers are the best offense they’ve faced yet and can attack all levels from their run game to the passing game. So while the Ravens may have looked tough against teams like the Lions and the Broncos who don’t tout a high-powered offense, we can’t ignore the games played against Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, and Carson Wentz. All three of those guys finished as top-10 fantasy quarterbacks those weeks against Baltimore. So Herbert is a very safe play this week who has plenty of upside and value for the price point.
Matthew Stafford (Draftkings: $6,700 / Fanduel: $7,900)
If there is one thing we’ve learned about Sean McVay, it’s that he isn’t afraid to run up a score or keep his quarterback involved regardless of what’s going on in the game. We saw it in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears, where Stafford was on full display for the first three quarters, guns blazing putting on a show. That’s why this week, if I decide not to pay up for a Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert or also choose not to pay down for a Taylor Heinicke or Carson Wentz, then I’m looking at Matthew Stafford in the midrange. Truthfully, $6,700 on Draftkings is just too cheap for how good Stafford has been playing. The New York Giants give up the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed around 24.8 fantasy points per game on average. I think Stafford is a safe play to hit that mark this week, and his offensive skill players are just too good for this Giants defense. They should be able to have themselves a game. The Giants defense has also been giving up around 3.2 touchdowns a game through the air, where Matthew Stafford is tied for the 5th-most touchdowns thrown this season. It’s a good spot for him, especially since Daniel Jones looks healthy enough to play in this game to keep it competitive. Hopefully.
Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow (Draftkings: $6,300 / Fanduel: $7,400)
Deep Sea Dive: Taylor Heinicke (Draftkings: $5,800 / Fanduel: $7,300)
Joe Mixon (Draftkings: $6,400 / Fanduel: $7,000)
If you ever saw that meme of the grim reaper walking door to door with a blood trail lingering and a sign on each door with the opponents faced were slaughtered. Then you have to envision a picture of running backs versus the Detroit Lions in that scenario. They will be a team that I pick on week after week at the running back position to target, and this week, it’s Joe Mixon. If we just scrap last week where Mixon was being eased back in from injury and honestly shouldn’t have even been playing in that game, then this season paints a picture where he has truly seen usage as a bell-cow running back.
To everyone’s surprise, the Bengals have been a lot more run-heavy than we ever anticipated them to be. While that may be annoying to the Joe Burrow managers, that sucks to suck because we are going to take advantage of it here in Joe Mixon’s low price after his low usage in last week’s game. Coach Zac Taylor has suggested that Mixon will receive a full workload and, my god, a full workload versus the Detroit Lions, who give up the 5th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, sounds like a good deal to me. He’s listed as the RB10 on Draftkings and RB12 on Fanduel with the ability to finish within the Top 3 at the position this week. Mixon is an excellent value play this week.
D’Andre Swift (Draftkings: $6,300 / Fanduel: $7,100)
Well, looky, who’s back here again for a second week in a row despite having a great game last week. Swift is still a value play! He leads all running backs in receptions this year, and while the rushing attempts are less than stellar, it’s his usage in the passing game that remains so valuable. He is on a Detroit Lions team that obviously doesn’t have much going for them, and he is far and wide their number one playmaker. And he needs to be with how often they play from behind. He reminds me of someone who could be a little “Alvin Kamara-esque” back when Alvin Kamara actually caught passes.
So, anytime I can get a player who comps similarly to the running back style we got off of Alvin Kamara for the last couple of years, sign me up! And yes, of course, I realize he’s not putting up those same crazy numbers Kamara has in years past because Swift’s upside does get capped a bit by his lack of being in a generally productive offense, unlike Kamara was. However, he still hasn’t been a slouch in the points department either because he’s the RB9 on the year. This week they go up against the Cincinnati Bengals, and while their defense has looked better than we’ve seen before, it doesn’t matter when it comes to Swift because they need his dual-threat ability in games to help move the Detroit offense. So, he continues to be a safe play to me with all the upside possible.
Honorable Mention: Darrell Henderson (Draftkings: $6,000 / Fanduel: $7,300)
Deep Sea Dive: Darrel Williams (Draftkings: $4,900 / Fanduel: $5,200)
Terry McLaurin (Draftkings: $7,100 / Fanduel: $7,400)
There is absolutely no way around it when it comes to Terry McLaurin this week. I want him in every single lineup build that I have. He’s on a Washington Football Team where there is virtually no competition for targets, and the guy has a commanding 31% target share on his offense while just looking like a certified stud. McLaurin has been bulletproof regardless of who is under center for Washington and is a solid wide receiver on any given week but twice on Sundays. Especially this Sunday going up against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and are tied for 3rd in the league for most passing yards allowed per game.
This season, McLaurin has been Top 10 in targets at the wide receiver position and has consistently been Heinecke’s favorite target thus far. The game boasts the highest over/under on the slate at 55.5, and I’d be willing to bet most of the points scored in this one come from Terry on the Washington side of things. He needs no explanation why he’s a no-brainer play for this matchup, and you should be starting him. He’s just about as great of a play as you can get this week at such a value.
Keenan Allen (Draftkings: $6,400 / Fanduel: $7,100)
I painted a narrative in my head that Keenan Allen is fed up with living in the shadows of his “big” little brother Mike Williams in which you may feel so inclined to pay up for this week because hey, those massive performances are slate breakers, so I totally get it. But nay nay, people pump the brakes for this week because, after Sunday, Keenan Allen will have you head-scratching about who the real alpha dog on this offense is. Realistically it could be both of them because Keenan Allen is still leading the Los Angeles Chargers in targets while Mike Williams is absolutely crushing it in the touchdown department. This may come as a shock to some, but Allen leads the team in red-zone targets with ten as opposed to Mike Williams’ eight. So I’m telling you this week we will be humming a different tune because positive regression is real, and the touchdowns might start to come to fruition here with Allen in Week 6.
The Los Angeles Chargers are facing a Baltimore Ravens secondary who have just been slashed and gashed on defense, specifically in the slot due to the injury bug they caught, and guess where we primarily find our boy Allen? In the slot. He will see a lot of Tavon Young, and who is that, might you ask? Exactly. Unless you’re a Baltimore Ravens fan yourself, then you probably aren’t familiar, and I promise you he is not going to be able to match up with someone as talented of a route runner as Keenan Allen. Slot corner Tavon Young is boasting a 51.8 overall grade, according to PFF. Last I checked, that is just not very good, and some of you may think to yourself, “but Kyra, what about Marlon Humphrey? I hear he’s a really good corner over there in that secondary.” That is a genuine concern but not one we need to configure when starting Allen because Humphrey doesn’t typically travel to the slot, and he should be seeing more of our “big” little brother Mike Williams. I’m willing to bet on Allen this week that his sole touchdown this year at least turns to two in this game, and he has a solid outing with lots of yards and receptions, giving you some great production at his value. Play with confidence.
Honorable Mention: Brandin Cooks (Draftkings: $5,800 / Fanduel: $6,500)
Deep Sea Dive: Mecole Hardman (Draftkings: $4,200 / Fanduel: $5,500)
Noah Fant (Draftkings: $4,800 / Fanduel: $5,800)
Noah Fant continues to be a value week after week as he has finished in at least three of his last five games this season with TE1 production. There were only two games where he scored single-digit fantasy points. Now, after last week he’s going to find himself on the field, even more, considering his only other competition for targets at the tight end position, Albert Okwuegbunam, landed himself on the IR. According to playerprofile.com, Fant was out on the field for 98% of the snaps! So here we have a guy who’s out on the field a ton, has a thin receiver core due to injuries, and leads his team in red-zone targets going up against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that’s allowed three touchdowns to the tight end position over the last two weeks. The Raiders have also allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to opposing to tight ends. I think Fant is in a great spot here, considering he is the 2nd most targeted player on his offense and is set up nicely with a favorable matchup this week to go along an enticing price tag.
Hunter Henry (Draftkings: $3,900 / Fanduel: $5,600)
Just like Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford were breakfast buddies slated to dominate the league the first three weeks, we have info on Henry and Mac Jones here at Club Fantasy. It seems these elements of the game fly under the radar unless you are addicted to football like me and come across stupid information like life outside of football. So I am here to tell you that Hunter Henry and Mac Jones are neighbors, so yeah, noted. Expect big things! I’m just messing with ya’s, but no really, they are neighbors.
Anyhow, maybe Jonnu Smith should consider moving because we’ve seen his usage and routes run trend down as opposed to Hunter Henry, who is on the up and up. The real househusbands of New England have been making some noise over the last two weeks, and I think it’s time to take up on that value. Hunter Henry plays against the Dallas Cowboys this week, who have given up the 17th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, and while that may not sound like an alluring stat, we have some good news. The Cowboys’ red zone defense is just atrocious. The defense ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in red-zone scoring and has given up 12 red-zone touchdowns over the course of five weeks as well. All of that makes Henry a great candidate for a touchdown as he’s also done better each week in fantasy points as they have passed and gets himself more and more involved.
Honorable Mention: Mo Alie-Cox (Draftkings: $3,100 / Fanduel: $5,000)
Deep Sea Dive: Ricky Seals-Jones (Draftkings: $3,000 / Fanduel: $5,000)
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans (Draftkings: $3,500 / Fanduel: $4,700)
Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots (Draftkings: $3,200 / Fanduel: $4,100)
Honorable Mention: Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos (Draftkings: $3,100 / Fanduel: $4,600)
Deep Sea Dive: Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns (Draftkings: $2,700 / Fanduel: $4,300)