Can we be breakfast buddies on Saturday mornings? I have this big grand idea that maybe if we do that and meet right here every weekend, then you and I can build a strong connection like Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp has. I promise that I won’t skyrocket all my value plays nearly right to the top if you do. But ah, yes, it is true, people. Gone are the days I could plug Cooper Kupp into all of my value articles because he is no longer with us on value plays. He has been sent off to the greener pastures with the rest of the top-tier talent. That’s okay, though; we have to move on. It’s Week 4, and there’s plenty left out there for us we have yet to discover.
I will find a different Kupp of coffee to sip on all these weekend mornings spent together. I don’t know what I’m going to do, though, if my weekly value play doesn’t provide a fun name to plug into my intros like that one to keep this thing rolling. I will just keep my fingers crossed that it can now continue to be Jalen Hurts. That name could hold a lot of weight in a couple of different areas for a play on words. But what are we even talking about, people? It’s almost Sunday, and here I am blabbing about breakfast, Kupps of coffee, and goofy last names to pick on.
Can you tell this intro is fueled by late-night adrenaline and Starbucks? Not a sponsor, but we are available. So, before this gets too out of hand, how about we just dial it in and get to the point of why we’re all here and see what this week has to offer. If you read last week’s article, I know your bankroll is much richer than it was prior, as we hit on 16 out of 21 suggestions. That is a 76% hit rate, people. So, do yourself a favor and go kash out, and I’ll see you next Saturday for breakfast, buddy.
Jalen Hurts (Draftkings: $6,900 / Fanduel: $7,900)
Look, if you take you a deuce… you don’t sit there and look at it, you flush it and move on. Words of wisdom by Jalen Hurts that I will be implementing in my decision to roll with Hurts as one of my favorite quarterback plays this week. While Hurts did not look very good Monday night, he showed us that his fantasy floor is still relatively safe even when he plays terribly in a game. He’s scored no less than 21 fantasy points in every outing, whether it was good or bad. Those points still count for garbage time or no garbage time, and this week I’m almost 100% certain he will see lots of garbage time points to keep up with the Kansas City Chiefs offense.
Mahomes is coming off two losses in a row with an Andy Reid homecoming narrative on the road in Philadelphia, and it should be a blood bath. Lucky for Jalen, the Chiefs’ secondary makes it relatively easy to put up some points on the board as they have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Their secondary has given up almost 30 plus points per game each week. I am willing to flush all the crap we’ve seen out of real-life quarterback Jalen Hurts and move on with fantasy quarterback Jalen Hurts, who will return value at his set price any given Sunday.
Dak Prescott (Draftkings: $6,700 / Fanduel: $7,700)
Sweet, sweet, beautiful Monday night football pricing has done us a favor here, giving us Dak Prescott at an excellent value price. He is the 9th quarterback here on the slate and, on any given week, provides us with a top-5 upside. It’s really as simple as that when understanding why Prescott is a value pick for me this week. I know that people may look at this matchup with a small mind and think to themselves, “But, Kyra, the Carolina Panthers have an excellent defense”! Well, yes, of course, on paper, that does seem to be factual.
But I’m not entirely convinced this is the truth when they have only faced opposing quarterbacks these first three weeks with guys going up against them, such as Jameis Winston, Zach Wilson, and Davis Mills. They certainly have not faced a quarterback of Prescott’s caliber and just lost star rookie corner, Jaycee Horn to a broken foot. I am willing to roll the dice this week and bet that the Panthers’ defense isn’t good enough to stop Dallas’s powerhouse of an offense. I wouldn’t think twice about throwing Dak in my lineup where other people might still believe this is a difficult matchup and shy away from him. While others zig, we are going to zag and reap the rewards.
Honorable Mention: Taylor Heinicke (Draftkings: $5,900 / Fanduel: $7,400)
Deep Sea Dive: Jacoby Brissett (Draftkings: $5,100 / Fanduel: $6,500)
Jonathan Taylor (Draftkings: $6,300 / Fanduel: $6,600)
Raise your hand if Jonathan Taylor has personally victimized you. Yeah, I’d be willing to bet there are more than a few of you who had higher expectations of the first-round pick this year in fantasy drafts. He’s had a few tough matchups to start out the season over these last two weeks versus the Rams and Taylor’s kryptonite, the Tennessee Titans. But let’s not get our panties in a bunch; it’s only Week 4, and there’s plenty of time to turn this thing around.
It could very well start here this week against Miami. The Miami Dolphins have given up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and the game script bodes well for Taylor. Over the last couple of weeks, Hines has been seizing the opportunity for fantasy points as Taylor has taken a step back when playing in games where the Colts are trailing. But we should be able to right Taylor’s ship this week in a very non-threatening Miami offense to keep this game uninteresting. The low over/under set at 43 points could favor the running backs in this game. Bounce back week? I sure hope so and am still willing to bet on Taylor’s talent to show out with better opportunities in this one.
Darrell Henderson (Draftkings: $5,600 / Fanduel: $6,000)
Henderson is someone that I was happy to quickly pivot towards putting in my article after getting news that he’s a full go for Sunday. Arizona has been giving up a bunch of yards to opposing running backs on the ground. This is a cheap price for the Los Angeles Rams running back in a game with plenty of points to go around. Before his one-week absence with injury, Henderson was actually a pretty solid RB1.
In the two weeks he played, he carried the ball for over 80 yards each time, averaged over 4 yards per carry, saw a healthy 80% of the snap share, and got himself a touchdown in each game as well. To be honest, even the snap share number is a little fudged because it includes Week 2, where he sustained his injury, but before that in Week 1, he saw a 96% snap share and was well on his way to doing so again in Week 2 before he got hurt. I don’t know about all of you, but I definitely want my running back out there most of the time, getting a ton of opportunities to score fantasy points. I like Henderson a lot this week to help round out my lineups at the RB2 slot. No brainer in this price range.
Honorable Mention: Zack Moss (Draftkings: $5,300 / Fanduel: $6,000)
Deep Sea Dive: Cordarelle Patterson (Draftkings: $4,900 / Fanduel: $6,000)
DJ Moore (Draftkings: $6,600 / Fanduel: $7,300)
In honor of Britney Spears and her newfound freedom, I just want to pay homage to her by saying, “Gimme Moore, gimme, gimme Moore”! It’s finally DJ Moore WR1 szn, and I am here for it. Since he entered the league, I have been here for it, and now it is all coming to fruition. My dynasty rosters are happy, and now our DFS lineups can rejoice with his value price until they put some respekk on his name. Moore has been getting absolutely fed targets by Sam Darnold over the last three games with 8, 11, and 12. The only other person on this team that was even close is Christian McCaffery whose currently dealing with a hamstring injury and is out for the game. The 30% target share is lovely, while so is the defensive matchup with the Dallas Cowboys giving up the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. So to take full advantage of an alpha like Moore at these prices while we still can because I guarantee the price will go up after this week.
Deebo Samuel (Draftkings: $6,500 / Fanduel: $6,900)
I feel like I’m the lone wolf all over Deebo Samuel this week, and if that’s the case, then so be it, even better. I think a lot of that has to do with recency bias when someone takes a step back the week prior, and we don’t believe that guys with names like Deebo Samuel can’t keep up top-tier production. But let me just clarify why I’m totally cool with fitting Samuel into all of my Week 4 lineups. That step back I just talked about for last week was primarily accredited to star cornerback J’aire Alexander who blankets every team’s star wide receiver. The encouraging part is that Jimmy Garoppollo still targeted the hell out of him regardless of how well covered Samuel was. In that game, he had ten targets with a lousy five receptions for 52 yards, but they were still force-feeding Samuel the ball. They eventually had to settle for targeting Kittle and Aiyuk because the game was going nowhere trying to stick with hoping Samuel breaks off for a big play.
It is evident that they know Deebo is this team’s WR1 and has massive big-play upside on any given week, and that’s why he’s had a 36% target share for the 49ers. Now, this week he is going up against the Seattle Seahawks, who have given up the 13th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and the 1st most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Samuel is essentially a hybrid of both wide receiver and running back. They design run plays for Samuel from time to time, and with a murky situation at running back, this could be a beneficial skill set he has this week. During Samuel’s rookie season, where he was last healthy while facing Seattle, he put on a clinic in both matchups for over 100 yards, and I’m sure coach Shannahan can get creative in this one to get him going.
Honorable Mention: Robert Woods (Draftkings: $5,300 / Fanduel: $6,200)
Deep Sea Dive: Jaylen Waddle (Draftkings: $4,900 / Fanduel: $5,400)
Logan Thomas (Draftkings: $4,900 / Fanduel: $5,800)
I genuinely don’t have a bunch of super inspiring or witty things to say about Logan Thomas, except he’s a pretty reliable starting tight end on a week-to-week basis. His price on Draftkings just under 5k isn’t too shabby, and he gets a favorable matchup this week against the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed a touchdown in every game thus far to the tight end position. Thomas has been out there for 100% of the snaps, so if the Football Team has the ball, then Thomas is ready every time. The Falcons are a secondary we’ve repeatedly picked on dating back to last season, and we aren’t stopping now, so fire up Logan Thomas this week for an excellent safety valve at the position.
Noah Fant (Draftkings: $4,300 / Fanduel: $5,700)
The tight end wasteland is brutal to navigate when you aren’t picking Travis Kelce every week to make things easy. But what I try to do is just choose the guys who I think are set up for many opportunities and good matchups, and this week Noah Fant checks both of those boxes. The Denver Broncos wide receiver core is down bad after losing KJ Hamler to an ACL tear, and Jerry Jeudy is still out for a couple more games. So it’s really only Sutton, Patrick, and Fant out there to run the show. I know that doesn’t sound all that exciting either after last week, where none of those guys really did anything impressive, but Bridgewater only threw the ball 25 times.
It mainly was the running backs who took care of the matchup versus the Jets, and Fant still had the third-most targets in that game, so it is encouraging he stays involved even when things aren’t great. This week he should be called upon and needed facing the Baltimore Ravens, who have given up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. I know he will probably be a popular play this week with his price tag, but there’s nothing wrong with trying to play it safe at such a murky position.
Honorable Mention: Dawson Knox (Draftkings: $3,600 / Fanduel: $5,600)
Deep Sea Dive: Evan Engram (Draftkings: $3,000 / Fanduel: $5,100)
Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers (Draftkings: $3,300 / Fanduel: $4,200)
Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts (Draftkings: $3,200 / Fanduel: $4,000)
Honorable Mention: New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints (DraftKings: $2,900 / Fanduel: $3,400)
Deep Sea Dive: Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears (Draftkings: $2,200 / Fanduel: $4,100)