Thrive Fantasy Player Props To Exploit | Week 4

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Woof, Week 3 was not great, Bob.  We did not actually bounce back like a tennis ball.  However, the process was sound, and the wins will come back around like in Week 1.  This is a marathon, not a sprint. Let’s just win more than we lose.  To meet that goal, there have been another five props selected to help with that notion.  Trust the process.

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Note: All projections given are from Club Fantasy co-host, Ryan Weisse.

Nick Chubb 0.5 rushing touchdowns

Hammer the OVER here.  Nick Chubb has had at least one rushing touchdown in nine of his last 11 games.  Last week was his first game without a rushing touchdown since Week 11 of 2020.  He will bounce back this week with at least one touchdown.  The Vikings have given up at least one rushing touchdown every week this season, and this game has a whopping 51.5 O/U.  The projected score is about 26.5 to 24.5.  Ryan Weisse, in his projections, also calls for a touchdown from Nick Chubb on the ground. It’s 85 points for a reason.  This is the most likely outcome.  Hit the layup here.

Damien Harris 1.5 Total TDs (rushing + receiving)

I am taking the UNDER here.  Shocking right?  I almost always look for props where I feel comfortable taking the over.  This is a different story though.  Damien Harris has NEVER had a game with more than one total touchdown.  In fact, Harris has three total rushing touchdowns and zero total receiving touchdowns in his 3-year career.  This game is against Tampa Bay, and the Buccaneers are a top-5 rushing defense. They have only given up one total rushing touchdown in three games.  You must beat Tampa through the air.  Damien Harris has only ten total receptions in three years.  JJ Taylor most likely assumes that James White role.  Ryan projects Damien Harris with one total TD.  I don’t even think he gets that.  However, one touchdown doesn’t lose you the prop.  Sixty-five points is the lowest I’ve seen, but it makes sense.  Hit another layup here.

Derrick Henry 110.5 rush yards

I am taking the OVER.  This is riskier because 110.5 is a big line.  However, Derrick Henry has hit the over on that line the last two weeks.  Henry has also hit that line 11 times since the start of the 2020 season, and ten of those 11 games were in Titans wins.  You can gather that the odds of him hitting this line go way up in wins compared to losses.  The Titans are 7-point ROAD favorites against the 0-3 Jets in this matchup.  Ryan doesn’t quite have Henry getting there with 104 projected rushing yards.  However, Henry has averaged at least 117 yards per game since the start of 2020. Take it one step further and look at Henry’s splits in wins these last two years. That’s 148 rush yards per game in wins these last two years. That’s pretty good odds for a prop that could net you 110 points.  The Titans are going to win this game.  Play the odds and take over.

Jalen Hurts 1.5 Total pass TDs

I am also taking the OVER here.  You may be looking at me sideways but let me explain.  Jalen Hurts has hit the over on 1.5 passing touchdowns in two of his three games this year.  This includes a game that the Eagles dominated the Falcons and another game that Dallas dominated the Eagles.  The Eagles play the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend.  The over/under is at 54 points with the Eagles being project at about 24.  The Chiefs have given up five total passing touchdowns through three weeks and eight total touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks (if you count rushing touchdowns).  Ryan has Hurts at two passing touchdowns.  The over here would score you a whopping 115 points.

Given that the Eagles will likely be playing catch-up all game, it’s a good bet.  The only real possibility of the over not hitting is a bunch of Jalen Hurts rushing touchdowns.  Those 115 possible points outweighs that risk though.

Odell Beckham Jr. 0.5 Receiving Tds

I am taking the OVER.   The over is worth a massive 120 points.  This is our third straight prop that goes over 100. There’s just a good feeling about Odell Beckham Jr. this week.  First game in almost a year and OBJ drew nine targets against a tough bears defense.  The rest of the Browns’ WRs combined for eight targets.  OBJ played 64% of the snaps, and only Peoples-Jones had more snaps at WR.  Peoples-Jones played one more snap than OBJ but was out-targeted by OBJ by 7.  OBJ didn’t score but put up a respectable five receptions for 77 yards.  Now the Browns get the Vikings, who have given up six total touchdowns so far this year, to opposing WRs.  Ryan is projecting a touchdown, and you should too.  OBJ will easily outpace all other WRs in targets.  If he also scores, that’s 120 points in our back pocket.

There you have it.  495 points up for grabs on these five picks.  Trust the process.