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Thrive Fantasy Player Props To Exploit | Week 1

Fantasy Football 2023

Happy Thrive Day!! Ahead of every Sunday this NFL season, expect this write-up on some of the best, or worst, player-props to play on Thrive Fantasy’s app. First, an introduction to Thrive. The basic idea is you must submit a lineup of player-prop selections. Whether it’s the over or the under, or player x over player y, each selection comes with assigned points.  Each prop carries a possible 200 points, split between the two possibilities. The favorite, or thing most likely to happen will be worth less than 100 points. While the underdog, the outcome less likely to happen, is worth more than 100 points. There are even 50/50 situations where both outcomes are worth 100 points exactly.

Today’s article explores the main slate of props. There are 20 props they put in front of you, and you must pick 10. This article will highlight 5 of them that you can take advantage of.

You can also take advantage of Club Fantasy’s partnership with Thrive. Sign up at this link, use promo code CLUB, and Thrive will match your opening deposit up to $100. Free. Money. Before you even play, you have more than you started with.

Jared Goff – 0.5 INTS

We will start with something easy. Take the OVER on 0.5 INTs here. The Lions open against the 49ers as massive underdogs (+7.5).  That’s partly because the Lions are not projected to be very good.  It’s also because the 49ers have terrorized Jared Goff the last two years. Goff threw three interceptions against the 49ers last year in their two matchups and had a dismal 1:1 TD/INT ratio in his last four games against San Francisco (0-4). Now, you take him away from Sean McVay and give him to a head coach that demands kneecaps to be bitten off. Ryan Weisse, who makes weekly projections for Club Fantasy, has projected him to throw 2 interceptions, and I agree. You will only get a possible 75 of 200 here for the over selection. However, take the layups where you can get them.  Lock in the OVER.

Dalvin Cook – 0.5 TDs

Take the OVER here as well. The Vikings open against the Bengals and are 3.5-point favorites. Ryan’s projections have the Vikings scoring five offensive touchdowns against that Bengals “defense.” Dalvin Cook is slated for 2 of those in the projections. I don’t disagree here either. Cook scoring at least 1 touchdown should be probable. Dalvin Cook scored at least one touchdown in 11 of 14 games. With Irv Smith out for the year, when the Vikings get down to the red zone, it is the Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson show. The Vikings will have plenty of those red-zone looks too.  Take the 80 points here and lock in the OVER.

Stefon Diggs – 7.5 Total Rec.

This one is harder. However, continuing the theme, take the OVER here as well. The Bills are 6.5-point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. Last year, Stefon Diggs had eight or more receptions in over 50% of his games.  Those games last year included a 10-reception day against the very same Pittsburgh Steelers.  Ryan has Diggs at 8 receptions. It is also very clear from last year, and in the preseason this year, the Bills will move the ball through the air. Diggs is a team captain. Take the OVER and the 105 points.

Juju Smith-Schuster – 65.5 Rec. Yds

Our first UNDER here. The Steelers take on the Bills in the same matchup that was discussed above. In their 2020 matchup, Juju only had 55 yards. This was one of 10 games that Juju was under the 65.5 threshold.  Ryan has Juju at just 49 yards this week. There are so many weapons on this team that all the WRs can hover around 50 yards, but Big Ben could have 300 passing yards. It boils down to which WR you like best, and I’ll bet on either the big plays from Claypool or the targets from Diontae. It is split 100/100 between the over and the under.  I’ll take the UNDER in my lineup.

Odell Beckham Jr. – 8.5 Rec Total

Another UNDER from way down yonder.  The Browns and Chiefs might be the game of the week, and the O/U is a mammoth 54.5.  However, 8.5 total receptions is a really high bar.  Odell Beckham Jr has never hit nine receptions in a Browns uniform.  That’s how high it is!!  Ryan has OBJ and Landry leading the team with only 4 receptions each.  I don’t know if I would go that low, but this isn’t a 6.5 reception line. It’s an 8.5.  Take the UNDER and the 75 points.

With these five picks, I have chosen 435 points.  Build your team around my picks and feel confident you can shoot for the stars on your other five selections.