By Kyra Wiaterowski
Saturday morning DFS articles and chill? Netflix and chill? However you want to spin it, both sound like a great way to spend a fall weekend during quarantine. Speaking of Netflix, I just finished the series, “The Haunting of Bly Manor,” and if you are at all familiar with the show, then you will be happy to know that my value picks for this week are “perfectly splendid.”
So, let’s welcome everybody into Week 7 of the NFL season! In this fresh Sunday slate, we have some really juicy matchups drawn up for us by the Fantasy Gods. I’m excited to see if the trend of death, taxes, and tight ends scoring on the New Orleans Saints is still alive and well, and man, could it be any more boring of an option for us? I have been toting this take through the whole series of my articles and the very first time I get to use it on a value play, it’s seriously Ian freaking Thomas? Boo! If he manages to score in this one, then lock it up and throw away the key. Set it and forget forever. Tight ends versus the Saints is the move and we will never stop throwing darts at them. But let us not get ahead of ourselves here; we have a lot of great players to put into our lineups and I’m ready to help guide you to some of the best decisions you’ll make this weekend. I’ve also added an addition to my value picks with some Deep Sea Dives that will likely have super lower rostership percentage and might be completely risky but can hopefully pan out and put you one tick above the rest. Let’s kash out!
Looking for more help building DFS lineups? We’ve put together our DFS Matchup Report for Week 7, showing who has the best (and worst) matchups.
Justin Herbert (DK: $6,400 / FD: $7,500)
When are we going to stop kidding ourselves and accept the fact that Justin Herbert is probably going to wind up being the QB1 of this rookie class? The guy is balling the hell out and we keep on dancing around the idea like he hasn’t majorly upgraded this offense. I don’t care about Anthony Lynn’s unwavering love for Tyrod Taylor — playing him over Herbert would be a real shot to the lungs for this offense right now. He’s improved the fantasy outlook for everyone on the team ever since he took the reins, including his own. He isn’t some waiver wire fill-in– he should be an every-week starter. So long as Draftkings and FanDuel are in the dark about it too, we will be firing up Justin Herbert in DFS. This week, he gets the fantasy-friendly Jacksonville Jaguars– surrendering around a staggering 30 points per game the last five outings. With Herbert’s big arm and big-play ability, I think his upside is sky high in this one. He’s ranks 5th in yards per game and 10th in touchdown percentage. *DROOLS*
Teddy Bridgewater (DK: $5,800 / FD: $6,800)
Well, well, well… we meet here again Teddy B, in yet another match made in heaven. This time, against a different divisional rival, the New Orleans Saints. What a fantasy-friendly division that NFC South is for us. We have four high-scoring offenses and three god awful defenses — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being the lone exception. So, what do we get when we have two terrible defenses and two great offenses playing against each other? We have a fantasy-gold baby in Teddy Bridgewater. Could this be his Revenge Game?! I mean, he’s practiced against this defense before, seeing as this is his former team. He should know its weaknesses and does have the firepower on offense to get the job done. The Saints defense has underperformed and Marshawn Lattimore, formerly known as the DROY in 2017, is merely a fraction of the player he used to be this season. NFL’s Next Gen Stats attributed Lattimore giving up 14 completions for 242 yards and two touchdowns. It also helps to know that the Saints are giving up the 4th most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.
Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow (DK: $5,500 / FD: $7,100)
Deep Sea Dive: Kyle Allen (DK: $5,200 / FD: $6,700)
David Johnson (DK: $5,300 / FD: $6,300)
I know just how unexciting and unsexy this pick is but nonetheless, he’s definitely priced at a value. When you are facing the Green Bay Packers, who allow the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, how can you not make your way onto here? We haven’t gotten to see many flashes of old David Johnson this season, but he’s in the position here this week to do so. If he doesn’t perform in this one, then we can banish him off our articles for eternity, never to be seen again. One positive for David Johnson this season is that he’s put up double-digit fantasy points in every week with the exception of one game versus a tough run defense in the Baltimore Ravens. If you want a pretty safe-floor RB2, I think this is a good place to look for the price.
Justin Jackson (DK: $4,900 / FD: $6,100)
Honestly, for being the seemingly lead dog in this backfield, Justin Jackson comes in with a good matchup at a cheap price point. In his last contest against the New Orleans Saints, he out-carried Joshua Kelley 15 to 11 and rushed for more yards on the ground, totaling 71 to Kelley’s 29. He also out targeted Kelley 6 to 1 and nabbed 5 receptions for 23 yards. Not too shabby considering the Saints have been pretty stout against the run. This week, they face off with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are giving up the 5th most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Honorable Mention: Giovani Bernard (DK: $4,500 / FD: $4,800)
Deep Sea Dive: Zack Moss (DK: $4,200 / FD: $5,400)
Terry McLaurin (DK: $5,800 / FD: $7,100)
Who the hell let this beautiful McLaurin F1 into this carlotta credit? The man is quarterback-proof and matchup proof and being targeted outrageously in the Football Team’s offense. What more can you want from a guy? Oh, an actual perfect matchup for him to reach his full potential? You don’t say! Well, you came to the right place this week because Scary Terry is about to get real spooky the weekend before Halloween with arguably his best matchup to date against “America’s Team,” the Dallas Cowboys. The epitome of being America’s Team in 2020, their defense is just absolutely atrocious and getting torn apart by opposing wide receivers. Giving up the 3rd most fantasy points per game this season sounds too sweet for me not to plug McLaurin into every single one of my lineups this Sunday. Worried about Kyle Allen? I wouldn’t be. Were we trying to jump ship on D.J. Moore last season with Allen at the helm? Definitely not and I think he’s more than capable of keeping McLaurin relevant. Fire him up!
Chase Claypool (DK: $5,700 / FD: $6,400)
I know this looks repetitive to last week’s article, but man, this kid has got the juice. He seems like he’s always just a play away every game from making a highlight reel. He has the “it” factor if you will, and until Draftkings and FanDuel notice that, I’m firing up Chase Claypool at these discounted prices! He’s been super productive when given his opportunities. I love me a guy with some big-play ability! This week, he gets an A+ matchup versus the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are giving up the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and this game carries a nice over/under of 51 points for touchdowns to be scored. I would also like to add to this — remember chopped liver, Diontae Johnson? The guy who was leading the Steelers in targets through the first two weeks? Yeah, he’s back to practicing in full. So, in addition to Claypool’s cheap price, I have to say Johnson is even cheaper, and also a complete value play. JuJu Smith-Schuster, unfortunately, has seemingly fallen to third in this pecking order of wide receivers, although he’s still being touted on DFS as the WR1 so take advantage of these opportunities while you still can.
Honorable Mention: Mike Williams (DK: $4,700 / FD: $5,900)
Deep Sea Dive: Andy Isabella (DK: $3,900 / FD: $4,800)
Dalton Schultz (DK: $3,900 / FD: $5,200)
Alright, I’m going to be honest with you here– the bottom of the barrel of rolling out value DFS TEs this week is a little rough. You are probably hesitant on Schultz after Andy Dalton’s horrific Monday night performance. But! Of course, there is always a but… as per usual, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb got their usual target shares while Sir Dalton Schultz came in at number 3 in targets on the team. It was encouraging to see Andy Dalton use Schultz still in this offense. Must be a Dalton to Dalton thing. I know we were looking more for a Dalton to Eifert-esque time performance here but maybe this is a week where we can see something like that. The Cowboys are facing the Washington Football Team who are giving up the 5th most fantasy points per game to the Tight End position. They have also given up five touchdowns to Tight Ends in the past six games and with Schultz being targeted five times in the red zone — second only behind Amari Cooper — I like his chances to get a score in this one.
David Njoku (DK: $3,000 / FD: $4,500)
Okay, yes, another so-so option for value. Seeing David Njoku as a value play may make your skin crawl. But hear me out on these dart throws this week! I initially wanted Austin Hooper here but he’s sick with appendicitis or something of a non-COVID-related nature, so we have to move on. The bright side is that the price point just got cheaper for essentially the same situation. Njoku has been rumored to want a trade out of Cleveland and if he wants to put himself on display, then this game against the Bengals is going to be a good place to start. Jarvis Landry recently reported to the media that he’s been a bit hobbled since his Week 5 game versus the Indianapolis Colts where he suffered a broken rib. I don’t know about you, but I have broken a rib before and it does not feel that great. It’s definitely holding him back from being the player we are used to seeing. Baker Mayfield’s pecking order of targets typically starts with OBJ, then a little Landry and of course, his running backs…but now, more recently in light of Landry’s injury, it makes sense why we have seen Austin Hooper begin to earn his monster contract. Let’s take our chance here on Njoku going up against the Bengals who are allowing a high target share rate to tight ends this season. Only five other teams have surrendered more points to the tight end position. Worth a shot, right?
Honorable Mention: Ian Thomas (DK: $3,000 / FD: $4,600)
Deep Sea Dive: James O’Shaughnessy (DK: $2,600 / FD: $4,300)
Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $3,400 / FD: $4,500)
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals (DK: $2,800 / FD: $4,700)
Honorable Mention: Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys (DK: $2,500 / FD: $3,800)
Deep Sea Dive: Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks (DK: $2,300 / FD: $3,800)
If you’re looking for even more Week 6 content, check out Josh’s Confidence Plays and Ryan’s Streams of the Week.