Cooper Kupp is no longer THE alpha of the Rams’ receiving corps. He’s now one of the TWO alphas in the Rams receiving corps. Yes, I bet you didn’t see that coming with the opening sentence. I have written about Cooper Kupp since 2021 in these fantasy football spotlight articles, and this is the first time I can truly say he’s not the only alpha in the Rams’ receiving room.
Puka Nacua arrived last year in a big way. However, that doesn’t mean you should discount Kupp in your fantasy drafts, especially with a third-round ADP on Underdog. Kupp can still win your league even if Puka has another season like he did in 2023, health permitting, of course. Let’s explore.
Cooper Kupp 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Cooper Kupp had been a top-5 WR in fantasy points-per-game, or top-5 in overall season finishes, in three of his previous four seasons before 2023. Kupp was a top-5 WR in 2019 with Jared Goff. We all remember his historic 2021 season. He blew away the fantasy competition, won a Super Bowl, and became the Super Bowl MVP. He also came extremely close to setting single-season records for receptions and yards. This was on a whopping 191 targets.
Kupp followed that up in 2022 with a points-per-game pace that would have exceeded 2021. He was fantastic. Then he got injured and missed the rest of the season. That and Stafford’s injury put a bow on the Rams’ tumultuous 2022 season. This was all highlighted in the 2023 Kupp article from about a year ago. So, no need to re-hash the written words of my past articles any further.
Ups and Downs
Let’s focus on Kupp, Nacua, and the Rams in 2023. I published my article about how much I liked Kupp last year, and it feels like the next day he hurt his hamstring in training camp. That caused him to miss the first four games of the season. Puka Nacua exploded on the scene. The Rams offense had some peaks and valleys. What’s the word for 2024? Can Kupp still repeat as a top-10 WR? My answer is yes, no matter how the season goes for Nacua. Puka could be the WR1 overall, and there can still be a path for Kupp to be a top-10 WR. Let me explain. Let’s start with Kupp.
Kupp did not miss a beat when he rejoined the Rams in Week 5. He had eight receptions for 118 yards against Philadelphia, then seven for 148, and a touchdown against Arizona. Plus, he had a whopping 21 targets in those two games. That 17-game pace would have had him finish with 96 receptions, 1600 yards, and six touchdowns. It could have been a monster year. Kupp was back, we all thought. He had some struggles after that, though.
The next three weeks, he only had eight receptions. Then there was a Stafford injury. I will say, though, that Kupp still had 24 targets in those three weeks. He was featured. Then he got hurt against Seattle and only played 18 snaps. The injury lingered into week 12 against the Cardinals. Quite the up-and-down season so far.
Getting Healthy
After Week 12, even with the mentioned highs in Weeks 5-6, it seemed like Kupp’s season was a bust. People in the community were wondering if he was washed. We didn’t know for sure. Luckily, that wasn’t the end of the story in 2023. Stafford came back healthy.
Kupp came back healthy, too. He played at least 97% of snaps in the Rams’ final five meaningful games. In those five games, the Rams offense scored 26 or more points in each game. Kupp had 44 targets, 32 receptions, and four touchdowns in those five games. That would come out to a 17-game pace of 109 receptions and 14 touchdowns. Wow. That would be another massive year for Cooper Kupp.
Couple this with Kupp’s nine targets in the playoff game and four redzone targets, while no other wide receiver on the Rams had any that day. Kupp could still have a big year and now has a great price tag. His ADP right now on Underdog is 30.6. You can literally get Kupp on the cheap. This is for someone who closed the year healthy and nearly at 19 fantasy points per game (in PPR). The ADP bakes in his injury risk.
Is it Puka’s Team Now?
Injury concerns are one thing. The other concern people have with Cooper Kupp is his running mate, Puka Nacua. Nacua, as a 5th-round rookie, had 105 receptions, nearly 1500 yards receiving, and six touchdowns. He took the fantasy world by storm. He was the waiver wire pickup that won people fantasy championships and a fourth-round dynasty rookie draft pick that won me dynasty championships. But Nacua now has a first-round price tag like Garrett Wilson and AJ Brown. That is because the community believes he’s the alpha for the Rams now, not Kupp. But I think they can still be both alphas.
Let’s break down Nacua’s season the same way we broke down Kupp’s. Kupp missed the first four games, right? During those four games, Puka had a pace of 166 receptions and over 2100 yards. Those would have shattered records. But, no records were shattered. Puka’s pace slowed quite considerably in the games that coincided with Kupp’s return. He had a pace of 108 receptions, 1422, and 6, if you only count Weeks 5-6. Those are still great numbers, but Kupp had a fantastic pace as well.
Nacua’s worst pace of the season came next, with Kupp missing most of the game against Seattle, Stafford missing time with an injury, and a stalled offense. Those same struggles plagued Kupp, as was mentioned. Over those six games, Puka was only on a 17-game pace of 62/822/6. That’s borderline WR3 in relevancy. Kupp’s struggles were highlighted but it was the Rams in general that struggled. No Kyren Williams for a while. No Stafford for a while. The entire offense suffered those six weeks.
Fantasy Value
This is all to say that during Kupp’s last five games that we discussed above, Puka was great, too. He was back up to a pace of 95/1771/7 in those five games. In PPR formats, Puka was the WR3, and Kupp was the WR7 at 18.6 ppg. That’s the kind of upside that Kupp still possesses, even with Puka Nacua at a WR3 pace. Can you imagine if a healthy Kupp means he’s back to the 1A in the offense? But even if he’s the 1B, it’s not a problem. The ADP bakes in that concern, though. You aren’t paying for 2021 Kupp. So even if you get 2019 Kupp or 2023 Kupp, Kupp is going nowhere near his ceiling. Puka is kind of going around his ceiling.
Kupp is going around the area where guys like Zay Flowers, DJ Moore, and DK Metcalf are. None of those guys possess the same kind of upside that Kupp does. Zay Flowers was the WR30 last year and averaged less per game than Kupp in Kupp’s up-and-down season, which included a game where Kupp left after only playing 27% of the snaps. DK Metcalf just had the lowest targets of his career, and Tyler Lockett and JSN are still in town, Geno Smith is still the QB, and DK had 1100 yards last year but only the WR23 in points-per-game. Kupp was WR24 in points-per-game in his injury-riddled year. Metcalf only had one game with more than 20.4 fantasy points. Kupp had three in 12 games (one of them he left early).
Finally, yes, DJ Moore had the best year of his career for fantasy, finishing at WR6. But his PPG was only at 16.9. Kupp’s fully healthy PPG again was 18.9. DJ Moore loses Justin Fields, who ironically might have been the perfect QB to unlock his skill set. Moore’s average depth of target (aDOT) was on the lower side of his career, but he had the most yards after the catch in his career.
Now he has a new QB, Caleb Williams, who pushes the ball downfield (9.4 ypa vs. say 6.9 of Justin Fields). Plus, Keenan Allen, a known target hog, is in town, and the Bears spent a top-10 pick on WR Rome Odunze to stretch the field for Caleb Williams. Moore might be due for that regression back to his career means. He was between WR16-25 the last four years of his career. Kupp can and did get it done, while Puka also gets it done. The Rams didn’t spend almost anything to add to the WR position in 2024, either.
Conclusion
As you can see, Kupp did have an up-and-down 2023. There are injury concerns. Puka Nacua did have a big year. However, Kupp still had healthy stretches of games where he looked like his old self. Kupp still had stretches of top-10 WR in weekly points-per-game metrics. These stretches include stretches where Puka was also brilliant. Nobody was talking about them struggling at the same time. If the Rams’ offense hums like it did to close the season, then they will have TWO alphas. If Kupp remains healthy, albeit a big if (proceed with tempered caution), then he will soar above ADP. That upside is enough, though, to get me to draft Kupp everywhere in the middle of the third round. You all should at least think about it, too.
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A Look Inside the Los Angeles Rams
Editor’s Note: While Chris focused on Cooper Kupp in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Rams from Ryan Weisse.
Matthew Stafford
Stafford’s late-career resurgence has been great for Kupp and Nacua, but he was still just the QB15 last year in 15 games. He is a better option in two-QB and Best Ball leagues than someone you’re using a pick on in Redraft. He’ll be an excellent streaming option in 2024.
Kyren Williams
It wasn’t just Puka Nacua who broke out in 2023. As a former 5th-round pick, Williams shocked the world by finishing as a top-10 fantasy running back. He could have ranked even higher, as he was the RB7 in just 12 games. He registered 1350 total yards and 15 TDs. Now the question is: Can he repeat? The author of this article says it’s possible. I’m a little more skeptical. Williams is already dealing with a foot injury, and the Rams drafted one of the better backs from this year’s class, Blake Corum. With a top-10 ADP, Williams’ risk outweighs the reward in 2024.
Blake Corum
Corum has all the tools to succeed in the NFL and actually profiles quite similar to Kyren Williams. If you believe in draft capital, the Rams spent a 3rd-round pick on Corum, which is two rounds better than Williams. Most NFL RBs have a short shelf life, so Corum will see the field sooner or later. If he can take the job from Williams in 2024, he is a steal at his current ADP.
Puka Nacua
The only issue with Puka Nacua is his draft cost. He is a borderline first-round pick based on early ADP. You need him to match what he did last year to pay you back at that price. The good news, as Chris pointed out, is that a repeat is entirely possible. In the first two rounds of a fantasy draft, everyone is priced at their ceiling. You’re looking for safety, and Puka Nacua’s hands are as safe as they come.
The Tight Ends
If you have multiple tight ends, you don’t have a tight end. While Tyler Higbee is aged and recovering from a knee injury, we don’t know who will take the lead here. It could be Colby Parkinson, who the Rams gave a decent contract this offseason. However, he hasn’t done much as a receiver in his career, so he’s not exactly a fantasy darling. It could also be Davis Allen, who had a couple of good games filling in for Higbee last year but is largely unproven. Or maybe Higbee gets healthy? In other words, until there is clarity, it’s best to avoid Rams tight ends.