This article could be called “The Zero RB Guy Reviews the Dynasty Running Backs.” The RB tiers will differ significantly from the QB tiers in last week’s article. This will be more of a grouping of players with similar situations than players with similar dynasty or production values.
Trade value is a tricky concept for running backs. As someone who has been fading running backs for years, I’m generally not interested in trading for them at this point of the dynasty offseason. If someone with a proven production profile should become available for a liquidation price, I’d have to be at least somewhat interested, but I’m not out there making offers.
That said, others will be out there trying to do the liquidating or bolstering their stables at offseason prices so let’s take a look at how the RB values shake out for early-2024.
Dynasty Overview – Running Backs
Tier I – Non-Zero Dynasty Value
- Christian McCaffery, SF
- Bijan Robinson, ATL
- Breece Hall, NYJ
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET
- Jonathan Taylor, IND
McCaffery is a walking dynasty lie detector test. Anyone who says they play dynasty in “two to three-year windows” and doesn’t have him as the RB1 is not being honest with themselves. His injury-plagued seasons of a few years ago now look like the outliers, and he’s in the perfect situation for someone with his particular set of skills.
If I had any Gibbs shares, I would be actively looking to move them. His value is unlikely to ever be higher than it is right now. “Get back in there at once and SELL, SELL!”
JT is on the fringe of this Tier and the next, YMMV.
Tier II – For the Believers
- Kyren Williams, LAR
- De’Von Achane, MIA
- Travis Etienne, JAX
- Rachaad White, TB
- Kenneth Walker, SEA
- James Cook, BUF
I’m seeing a lot of “Kyren Williams is a dynasty sell!” noise out there, which triggers the natural contrarian in me to maybe, kind of want to buy. I can’t imagine the price-to-risk ratio is a number I’m comfortable with, though.
Achane and Gibbs are the same player, Gibbs just has better marketing through the firm of Draft Capital, Bennett, Robbins, Oppenheim, and Taft.
Tier III – Landing Spot, Landing Spot, Landing Spot
- Saquon Barkley
- Josh Jacobs
- Tony Pollard
- Derrick Henry
- J.K. Dobbins
- D’Andre Swift
- Austin Ekeler
- AJ Dillon
- Devin Singletary
- Antonio Gibson
- D’Onta Foreman
The notable free agents. Where they land and what they make will determine their value. If you’re optimistic about any of them, feel free to go get them now. It’s your money, not mine. Keep in mind that everyone here is, by definition, on their second or third contract. Not the safest investment material.
Tier IV – You Don’t Have to Squint to See a Path
- David Montgomery, DET
- Jaylen Warren, PIT
- Isiah Pacheco, KC
- Javonte Williams, DEN
- Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
- Zach Charbonnet, SEA
This tier doesn’t move in the offseason. Nobody wants to pay what it costs to acquire, and nobody wants to sell for the market price. They all have a path to top-12 RB status in any given year. At this time next year, most of them will be in the next tier.
Tier V – They’re Just So Old…
- Aaron Jones, GB
- Alvin Kamara, NO
- Nick Chubb, CLE
- Joe Mixon, CIN
- James Conner, ARI
- Raheem Mostert, MIA
They’re all going to produce, and they’re all going to get hurt. It’s just a matter of how the timing works out. This is the Tier I’m willing to buy from if they truly are being liquidated. The ones who get hurt early and are available late (see Aaron Jones, 2023) will be in high demand come fantasy playoff time.
Tier VI – The Traps
- Tyjae Spears, TEN
- Roschon Johnson, CHI
- Chase Brown, CIN
- Keaton Mitchell, BAL
- Zamir White, LV
- Ty Chandler, MIN
People (other people) will look at the short-term success these guys had at various points and the perceived lack of better options in front of them and think there’s “next big thing” potential. Don’t be these people. They’ll all have different levels of usable-ness. They’re not stars.
Tier VII – The Great Unloved
- Najee Harris, PIT
- Khalil Herbert, CHI
- Brian Robinson, WAS
- Dameon Pierce, HOU
Yeah, no. They’re unloved for a reason. If you have them, watch them like a hawk and move at the first sign of good value news or productivity.
Tier VIII – Roster Them, Don’t Give Up Anything For Them
The Literal Rest of the Field– If they made it through the season on a roster, they might have value. Such is the life of a running back.
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