D.J. Moore is a curious case this offseason. He’s now a Buffalo Bill catching passes from Josh Allen. Josh Allen is the best quarterback that D.J. Moore has ever had, by a wide margin (no offense, Caleb Williams). But he’s also 29, entering his ninth season in the NFL, and is coming off the worst year of his career. Did the change of scenery come at the right time for one of football’s better WRs this past decade? Or is this fool’s gold and a ride off into the sunset? At WR27 in ADP, it’s certainly a curious case.
D.J. Moore 2026 Fantasy Outlook: Bounce-Back or Bust?
The Case Against: A Career-Low Floor
Let’s start with the bad.
Last year was a lot of career lows. D.J. Moore had a career low in receptions, yards, and only three more targets than he did as a rookie. Not to mention it was lower than a 60% catch percentage. It just wasn’t his offense. Ben Johnson moved on to Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Coleston Loveland, and backyard football from Caleb Williams. But despite all of that, D.J. Moore was the WR35. Yes, he was a WR3. He’s being drafted as a WR3 currently. So, he’s likely being drafted at his floor.
Further, the Bills haven’t thrown much under Joe Brady. They went from averaging nearly 600 pass attempts a year (35 per game), from 2021-2023, down to south of 510 per year (29.5 per game). They have been running the ball and controlling the clock better than most teams in the league. Khalil Shakir had a 23% target share last year while operating primarily out of the slot. But he was a top 36 WR. That’s at 10-yards per reception. D.J. Moore’s career yards per reception is 13.5. He will assuredly finish higher than that at a 23% target share. That’s not much. That would have been 24th in the NFL.
The Case For: Proven Baseline & Bounce-Back History
Now let’s talk about the good.
D.J. Moore had, on average, 131 targets per season the three years prior to his career low. This 131-target pace amounted to nearly 86 receptions, 1073 yards, and 7 touchdowns per season. This was good for finishes of WR16, WR6, and WR24 seasons. He was the WR18 the season before that. He was automatically a top 24 WR with WR1 upside. That’s what he could be with the Bills this season too. At WR27, that’s a good price for that kind of upside. That might be the normal D.J. Moore too. Last year might be the anomaly.
Be sure to check our fantasy football preview of D.J. Moore and the 2026 Buffalo Bills!
The Stefon Diggs Blueprint
D.J. Moore could certainly follow in Stefon Diggs’ footsteps in Buffalo. A disgruntled WR who had a good career but needed a change of scenery with Buffalo and Josh Allen. In the last two years of his career in Buffalo, Stefon Diggs had a 29% and 28% target share. D.J. Moore has had 27% and 29% target shares in his career too. If D.J. Moore had that target share in Buffalo, he might crack the top 12, especially if Buffalo increases in the passing touchdown department. A 27% target share, at 530 pass attempts, would be around 90 receptions, 1196 yards, and around 6 touchdowns. This would have been the WR-10 this year. More evidence of real upside potential.
ADP Value & Draft Day Strategy
The competition isn’t much either. Near his spot, which is at the end of the 5th round, are Carnell Tate, Bhayshul Tuten, D’Andre Swift, and old men Mike Evans and Terry McLaurin. There is no risk at all at that ADP. I just did an Underdog Best Ball Draft and drafted D.J. Moore at pick 59, as my WR2, to go with Saquon Barkley, Omarion Hampton, and Josh Allen. It’s a curious case. As a WR2 in ADP, with his potential upside and a relatively safe floor, he will be on a lot of my fantasy football teams. Draft accordingly.
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A Look Inside the Buffalo Bills
Editor’s Note: While this article focused on D.J. Moore in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Bills from Ryan Weisse.
Josh Allen
I am not sure I need to write much here. He is the best QB in fantasy for basically six straight years; you just need to decide what you are willing to pay. Is he worth a late-second, early-third? Probably. But with the deep QB pool, you can wait and add a slightly worse QB at a discount later in your draft. How much is the positional advantage worth to you?
James Cook
Cook has been a TD Machine over the last two seasons, finding the endzone 32 times. If this were his only means of fantasy points, I would be concerned, but he also recorded over 1900 total yards last year. He is a workhorse in every sense of the word and worth an early pick in your fantasy draft.
Ray Davis / Ty Johnson
If Cook stays healthy, you don’t want either of these guys. I only mention them as injury insurance. If Cook gets hurt, Johnson will handle passing downs, and Davis will be the primary rusher. On a team with so many pass-catchers, Johnson can be phased out; Davis cannot. If something happens to Cook, get Ray Davis.
Khalil Shakir
Despite leading this team in targets last season, Shakir finished as the WR35. Putting it bluntly, he is not built to be a WR1. With Moore now carrying that title, Shakir can play a more complementary role. All in all, that could lead to similar results. Shakir catches EVERYTHING. He has a 76% catch rate over his career. So if Moore comes in and takes 130 targets, and Shakir only hits 80-90, that is still 60 receptions. I won’t be surprised if Shakir is still a Top-50 WR even with Moore in town.
Keon Coleman
I wanted to love Keon Coleman, but there is not much fantasy value here. I am shocked he is still in Buffalo after facing disciplinary healthy scratches last season. Now, with Moore ahead of him, there are even fewer targets heading his way. He is off my fantasy radar.
Dalton Kincaid
Kincaid may be the true breakout candidate in this offense. I will say, for Kincaid to succeed, Shakir may have to suffer. It’s D.J. Moore atop the pecking order, and the winner of that #2 role has considerably more value than #3. Kincaid missed five games last year, but put up some eye-watering efficiency numbers for a tight end. All signs point to a breakout, and you can land him later in drafts.
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Before you go, check out where D.J. Moore and the rest of the Bills fall in our 2026 Fantasy Rankings!