James Cook finished as the RB8 last year. His ADP this year is currently the RB15 and going in the back of the 4th round. Cook was the RB12 the year before, too. I also liked him last year and wrote this same article encouraging you all to draft him for the 2024 season. That should make this an easy article to write, right? Draft Cook and cash in on the projected return on investment by doing so at that price. Right?
Well, it isn’t that simple. Cook is also primed for some major regression in the touchdown category. It makes it a hard sell for an RB that likely has nowhere to go but down, or at best, stay the same. Not to mention he’s currently in a hold-in situation regarding a contract dispute. Monitor this situation closely before your drafts. But for his 2025 outlook, assuming he’s playing Week 1, let’s get into it.
James Cook 2025 Fantasy Football Preview
2024 Fantasy Production
James Cook was wild in 2024. He only had 207 rush attempts and 38 targets. But he had over 1000 yards on the ground and 18 total touchdowns. 18! That’s how he got to be that top 10 RB. It was an astonishing jump to go from two rushing touchdowns in 2023 to 16! His efficiency was also outstanding in catch percentage and yards per attempt. It was that dream season for Cook, especially since the community didn’t think he had a nose for the endzone. The community also thought Josh Allen would steal all of his touchdowns. Josh Allen did have 12 rushing touchdowns. But that certainly didn’t stop James Cook.
On one hand, James Cook can repeat as an RB1. Cook’s monster numbers were a product of the Joe Brady offense that I spoke about last year in this same article. His 17-game pace with Brady is 229 attempts for 1098 yards, and 9 touchdowns on the ground, while pacing to put up 47 targets, 39 receptions, 362 yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns.
The sample size is big enough to potentially rely on these numbers, too. And the best part? Things remain the same in Buffalo, which is why James Cook could theoretically repeat. Same Head Coach, same MVP Quarterback, same Offensive Coordinator, same WRs and TEs. No new RBs in the room. No new faces. The pass catchers are mid. There is no alpha. Also, Cook finished 7th in 10-zone attempts. Cook was also top 12 in 5-zone attempts with 15 total. Again, it is well within the realm of possibility that James Cook returns on investment and is an RB1 again with those underlying facts.
The Case for Touchdown Regression
However, James Cook can also really disappoint in fantasy this year. As mentioned, he only had 207 carries and 38 targets. That was down from 237 attempts and 54 targets in 2023. The Bills are working Ray Davis into their game. Davis had 113 attempts and three rushing touchdowns. Davis and Ty Johnson also combined for 44 targets and six receiving touchdowns. They both had more touchdowns through the air than Cook.
Joe Brady features the RBs. But Joe Brady is not featuring a workhorse. Everyone is getting involved. What happens if they work Ray Davis in more than last year, especially considering Cook might be on a long-term contract? What happens if those 5-zone attempts turn into passing attempts? If Cook had 10 rushing touchdowns instead of 16 (still a lot), he would have been the RB-17 in a full season, sans Week 6. That would not be a return on investment and a meh pick.
The 10-zone and 5-zone attempts Cook has can tell a story of a possible repeat, or evidence of his upcoming regression. Cook’s 10-zone and 5-zone rush attempts mentioned above were less than 50% of his team’s rushing attempts. The story of a repeat would be how that compares to other RB leaders in the 10-zone and 5-zone.
Derrick Henry had 20 5-zone attempts, and that was 90.9% of her team’s attempts. Kyren Williams had 19 5-zone attempts, and that was 73.1% of his team’s attempts. Josh Jacobs had 41 10-zone attempts, and that was about 70% of his team’s share. They are essentially capped out. Meanwhile, Cook was only at 46.7%. That could increase. An increase in that percentage could negate any expected decrease in the touchdown department. If he ended up with 12-14, that would still be a top 12 season and a return on investment.
But who’s to say it increases? This could be his ceiling. Josh Allen is going to take 30-35% of those attempts, minimum. What if Ray Davis gets more run inside the 10 and Cook only gets 35-40% of those coveted attempts? That’s in addition to a potential decrease in efficiency and a likely ceiling of touches through the air, and outside the 10, and that could lead to an RB24-esque season. Yuck.
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Players Going Around James Cook in ADP
The players going around Cook in ADP are a mixed bag. I won’t have any shares of Jameson Williams or JSN, who is going a full round ahead. Omarion Hampton leapfrogged James Cook in ADP. Talk about someone being drafted at his absolute ceiling as if Najee Harris wasn’t even there. News flash, Najee Harris is there. Also, Chuba Hubbard a round later? No, thank you.
But then Ken Walker is going a full round later? Xavier Worthy and Tetairoa McMillan have the kind of upside and opportunity that makes one salivate (especially with an anticipated Rashee Rice suspension). DK Metcalf and DJ Moore have top-10 upside. Jalen Hurts is the last of the elite rushing QBs and goes for the cheapest price. These are quite the decisions one has to make.
Final Verdict: Draft or Fade?
I told you this wasn’t an easy article. I took a little more than 1100 words to tell you that James Cook might be appropriately priced. His upside is likely a little lower than last year, but still a top-12 RB. His downside is worrisome with the anticipated touchdown regression. You could do better than Cook. You could do worse than Cook. He might be one of those boring picks as a team’s RB2 or a target as your RB1 for the heavy-WR drafters. You could also be Joe Zollo and take him in the 4th round as your RB4. Who know?. What we do know is that the Bills will be really good.
Proceed with extreme caution, though, until we get a resolution on his contract dispute. He could always miss games. Or he could be like Ja’Marr Chase last year and come back right before the season and ball out.
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A Look Inside the Buffalo Bills
Editor’s Note: While this article focuses on James Cook in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Bills from Ryan Weisse.
Josh Allen
He is the closest thing to a lock in fantasy football. Almost a lock for QB1. Definitely a lock for Top 3. If you can afford the draft price, you never have to worry about QB again. Draft Josh Allen.
Ray Davis
As this article pointed out so well, James Cook’s role is a bit uncertain. The Bills worked Davis in as a rookie, and conventional wisdom says that increases in Year 2. If Cook continues his holdout or gets hurt, Davis will be a steal in the late rounds of your draft.
Khalil Shakir
Shakir just suffered a high ankle sprain, but reports say he’ll be ready for Week 1. This will scare some drafters off, but I say buy the dip. Josh Allen trusts Shakir, and he is the only receiver on this team who does what he does. Short and intermediate routes are his trick, and he plays his role to perfection, catching 76% of his passes last year.
Keon Coleman
I love tall receivers, and I fell head over heels for Coleman after his pressers last season. After his rookie season, it was Coleman’s value that fell on its head. He can’t separate and has issues with drops. He is George Pickens without all the acrobatic catches that make Pickens valuable. Coleman could still grow into something special, and Josh Allen is his QB, but it seems unlikely he’ll ever see the volume to crack the Top-30 in fantasy.
Josh Palmer
Palmer is a different kind of deep threat to Coleman. While Coleman climbs the ladder, Palmer runs past you. I think Palmer’s game could mesh with Josh Allen. With Shakir battling an injury and Coleman battling his own hands, there is a non-zero chance Josh Palmer leads this team in targets and is the steal of your fantasy draft.
Dalton Kincaid
Of all the fantasy tight ends to emulate, Kincaid chooses Kyle Pitts? Lots of volume, little value. Could he put it all together this year? Sure. Now, ask yourself how many times you have had that same conversation about Pitts…and then draft a different tight end.
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You can also see where James Cook and the rest of the Bills fall in our 2025 Fantasy Rankings here!