The A List at DFS Academy | Conference Championship NFL DFS

Austin Amandolia

1 year ago

Believe it or not, we officially have just three games left of the NFL season. Teams are already getting new coaches, and soon, we will start looking at the next rookie class. Plus, Best Ball season is on the horizon. But first, Conference Championship NFL DFS!

This weekend we get treated to a two-game slate that brings plenty of game theory and variance to our DFS contests. Because of this, I am officially only playing tournament lineups for the remainder of the season. I will typically play at least three different lineups to ensure I’m getting different levels of exposure. But I always have a favorite.

This week, my favorite lineup involves a Philadelphia Eagles onslaught. My working theory is that DFS players are going to be hesitant to stack multiple Eagles players together, assuming they will all vulture each other’s opportunities. I want to lean into that this week and build my lineup as if multiple Eagles smash in fantasy.

Additionally, I expect people to play the Buffalo versus Kansas City game as if it hits the over. While I will also set lineups with this in mind, I believe there is a good chance the game actually hits the under, so by coming in underweight on those teams, I am aiming to gain leverage on the field.

But as always in tournaments, don’t get tunnel vision. Diversify your exposure and have fun with it.

Let’s get into our Conference Championship NFL DFS picks.

Cash is in session.

Note: We also broke down both games for the Showdown slates. Go check out our YouTube channel!

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Conference Championship NFL DFS

Teacher’s Pet

A.J. Brown (DraftKings: $6,800 / FanDuel: $8,200)

When narratives are working against players, I love to lean into that player. A.J. Brown has made headlines for reading books on the sideline during the Wild Card Round and social media was ablaze with angry fans at his drop in the Divisional Round. And yet, this is still A.J. Brown we are talking about. He is one of the best receivers in the league and just got targeted seven times in a snow-riddled game. Brown is set for a bounce back, and if the Commanders try to focus on Saquon Barkley, Brown will be there to make them pay.

Honor Roll

Jalen Hurts (DraftKings: $6,500 / FanDuel: $8,000)

If I love A.J. Brown, it is no shock that I am looking to stack him with Jalen Hurts. But there is another game theory aspect at play with playing Hurts this week. There’s a good chance he is the lowest-rostered quarterback on the slate. Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels are both seen as high-ceiling players who need to pop for their teams to win. Patrick Mahomes is the cheapest quarterback, making roster construction much easier. That leaves Hurts in this no man’s land of pricing. If the Kansas City versus Buffalo game hits the under and Philadelphia slows down Daniels, Hurts suddenly becomes the optimal quarterback.

Xavier Worthy (DraftKings: $5,500 / FanDuel: $6,500)

I have alluded to the Kansas City game hitting the under on multiple occasions, but that does not mean individual players will have bad fantasy performances. Xavier Worthy has led Kansas City receivers in routes run down the stretch. He has also been targeted at a high rate, averaging just over nine targets per game over his past four starts. Kansas City is likely going to test this Buffalo secondary, and Worthy is always a threat to stretch the field. One chunk play, and he is sending you up the DFS board. Especially because Hollywood Brown is likely to be highly rostered due to his salary.

Travis Kelce (DraftKings: $6,000 / FanDuel: $6,800)

Playoff Travis Kelce is officially back. After a middling redraft season, Kelce is the tight end to have in all DFS formats. Last week he had just his second 100-yard game on the season. Given how Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely performed against Buffalo, there is no reason to doubt Kelce. I also want to flag that it is worth considering two tight end builds this weekend. With a smaller slate, those builds become more viable, especially given the opportunity cost of forcing in a wide receiver that barely runs routes. Want to get very weird? Play Kelce and Noah Gray. It would not surprise me if they both score touchdowns, and no one is going to want to play both.

Check the Chalkboard

Saquon Barkley (DraftKings: $8,600 / FanDuel: $9,800)

You thought I was done with Philadelphia players? How could we overlook Saquon Barkley this week? While there is little reason not to play Barkley, I think the more interesting way to play him this week is with Jalen Hurts. Because of the “Brotherly Shove,” DFS players assume either Barkley or Hurts is going to score touchdowns. But what if they both score touchdowns this week? Further, what if none of the other running backs on the slate score enough points to be relevant? There are a lot of good run defenses playing this weekend, but Washington is not one of them. There is definitely a pathway for both Hurts and Barkley to pop, and playing them both is an automatic way to get unique.

Participation Grade

Keon Coleman (DraftKings: $3,700 / FanDuel: $4,900)

There is a good chance at least one of the Buffalo Bills receivers is in the optimal lineup this weekend. Choosing which one is more akin to roulette than fantasy football. I am picking Keon Coleman simply because I like him as a player and think he should be getting more utilization in this offense. He also has a downfield ability that helps him bring in chunk plays. And he has the size to bring down contested catches. But overall, pick your favorite Bills receiver and mix it up to avoid getting fixated on just one player.

Back of the Classroom Studs

Kareem Hunt (DraftKings: $5,400 / FanDuel: $6,000)

It is still stunning to me that Kareem Hunt has been the most important Kansas City running back this year, but here we are. He has become a vital part of Kansas City’s red zone offense, securing plenty of goal touches and touchdowns. In a game where Kansas City will likely want to slow down the clock and play ball control, Hunt is poised to touch the ball plenty.

Olamide Zaccheaus (DraftKings: $3,900 / FanDuel: $5,200)

Why yes, I am still going back to Olamide Zaccheaus despite him letting me down two weekends in a row. This is primarily a game theory move. DFS players are going to default to Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown because of how the past two weeks have gone. By playing Zaccheaus, I am planning to gain leverage with a player who has already popped once against this Philadelphia Eagles defense.

Philadelphia Eagles (DraftKings: $3,300 / FanDuel: $4,400)

Overall, I wouldn’t stress too much about defense this week. I could make a case for playing all four defenses. Philadelphia is likely to be the chalkiest defense. Given this specific roster build, it makes sense to play them since I am betting on Philadelphia to be ahead. I would let your roster-build dictate your defense selection this week.

Report Card

DraftKings

Scoring System

A: Scored over three times their price
B: Scored over two times their price
C: Matched their price
F: Scored lower than their price

Player	Price	Points	Grade
Lamar Jackson	$7,800	20.06	B
Saquon Barkley	$8,200	42.20	A
DeVonta Smith	$5,600	6.10	C
Mark Andrews	$4,500	10.40	B
Jamhyr Gibbs	$7,700	38.50	A
Tim Patrick	$3,700	3.20	F
Rashod Bateman	$4,900	16.60	A
John Metchie III	$3,800	5.50	C
Kansas City Chiefs	$3,600	14.00	A
Overall	$49,800	156.56	A

Season Long	$942,700	2,288.86	B

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