The Tennessee Titans offense looks interesting for fantasy football ahead of the 2024 season. They revamped their passing attack by signing Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. After losing Derrick Henry, they brought in Tony Pollard to help their running game. Then, during the NFL Draft, they added their new franchise left tackle, JC Latham, with a top-10 pick. And let’s not forget they still have DeAndre Hopkins and Tyjae Spears.
(I think everyone is ready to forget about Treylon Burks).
They sure did everything in their power to ensure that Will Levis has the keys to be successful in year 2 of his NFL career. This article is about their backfield, though. Since Derrick Henry and his 300+ touches from a season ago are out of town, who should you take in your fantasy drafts? Tony Pollard? Tyjae Spears? I’m betting on Spears. Let’s explore.
Tyjae Spears 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
The Competition
Let’s start with the new Titans running back, Tony Pollard. Pollard was given a 3-year, $24-million deal to come into Tennessee and be a part of the backfield equation. He received $10 million guaranteed, but the Titans have an out after the 2025 season. Therefore, it’s honestly more of a 2-year, $14-million deal. The annual value of the contract is like that of James Conner and Aaron Jones. It is less than what Henry is making per year in total value with the Ravens.
Pollard’s value, according to over-the-cap, is ninth in average value per year and is closer to Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, and Devin Singletary’s value than to Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, or Saquon Barkley’s average value. We heard all offseason that Pollard got the bag, so it’s his backfield. But is it? Is this the kind of money that equates to more than 60% of the RB-targets or attempts? I don’t believe so.
Pollard had 68% of the attempts and 67% of the targets from the RB-pie in Dallas. He had the keys to an impressive offensive kingdom and was extremely disappointing. That kind of workload is usually worth its weight in gold, but he turned that golden opportunity into less than four yards per carry and only six touchdowns. That was only good for RB23 in weekly points per game (behind Kenneth Walker). Pollard was a top-15 overall pick in most leagues, too. What was the reason why it went so bad? Pollard was terrible in the redzone.
Pollard was amongst the league’s highest in rush attempts inside the opponent’s 10-yard line (29 total attempts). That only amounted to 45 yards and four touchdowns. Pollard had 16 carries inside the 5-yard line but less than a yard per attempt and only two touchdowns. Those numbers are truly awful. In comparison to, say, Kyren Williams, who had 17 carries for 38 yards and nine touchdowns inside the 5.
Pollard is now in Tennessee, where Derrick Henry had 22 ten-zone attempts and 15 five-zone attempts. So, as you can see, there is a massive need in Tennessee in the redzone for a young up-and-coming offense. People are betting on Tony Pollard even though he failed the first time to be the leading man in Dallas. I think Tyjae Spears might be the smarter bet here.
Spears’ Role
Let’s turn our attention to Tyjae Spears in this comparison. Spears had a good rookie season as the 2 in the Titans 1-2 punch. He had 100 carries and averaged 4.5 YPC. He also saw a whopping 70 targets last year. Tyjae Spears only finished as the RB35, but he improved as the season went on. He was to the RB31 overall after Week 5, and that improved to RB26 overall after Week 9. So, he got better as the weeks went by. Yes, Pollard got paid, but as I mentioned, he didn’t get a huge contract. The Titans could have extended Derrick Henry. They could have gone for one of the premiere backs in the 2024 Draft (i.e., Jonathon Brooks), but they settled on someone who has had more success as a member of the 1-2 combo than a workhorse.
This should still be a platoon of sorts. But that leaves a ton of questions: What will the split be? Who gets the redzone? Who gets third downs or the two-minute, no-huddle offenses? Will they ride the hot hand? Alternate drives?
At the end of the day, the Titans are going to run more plays under Callahan’s system. The offensive line in Tennessee is much improved, and there are multiple weapons now on the outside to take attention away from Pollard and Spears. The Titans are set up for success on offense next year (if Levis turns out to be the guy). So, let’s say that even if Pollard gets a 5% edge in attempts, Spears can still get a massive number of targets, and the redzone is totally up for grabs.
There is value to be had if one of them takes the redzone. Hypothetically, if Pollard was at about 190 attempts, and Spears was at 170, and they split the targets and the RB touchdowns, they could both be around 12-13 ppg in a full-PPR league. So, if one of them gets 60% of the share, and the majority of the touchdowns, then a high-end RB2 is within the range of realistic outcomes. For one of them.
Who should you take?
Who is the smarter bet? Pollard currently has an RB27 tag in Best Ball drafts on Underdog. Tyjae Spears is at RB38. That’s a difference of two full rounds between the two of them. Tony Pollard is, therefore, just closer to his perceived value than Spears. So, the return on investment is lower for Pollard than Spears, and the risk for Pollard is higher.
You are currently taking Pollard over Jonathan Brooks at ADP and around where David Montgomery and Najee Harris are going. That’s risky, in my opinion. If they split the work 50/50 and split the redzone as well, there is a world where both Tennessee RBs finish Top-32, but neither is all that valuable in fantasy. There is also a world where Pollard is the guy and Spears is irrelevant. I mean, they paid him, right?
The purpose of this article is not to rule out the possibility of Pollard as being the guy. It’s to highlight why I think Spears is the better bet and why I don’t think Pollard’s contract is the end all be all. Pollard’s play last year speaks louder to me than his contract this year. He would have gotten paid paid (like Saquon Barkley), if he didn’t blow it.
Check out the No Punt Intended team breaking down the Titans in this week’s episode!
Ready To Gamble?
But what about a world where Spears, the RB38 in ADP, takes the backfield and is a mid-level RB2? That’s the world I am betting on. The day-2 pick from a year ago, who had a good rookie year, and made some weekly noise while behind Derrick Henry, is my bet. Spears is cheaper, therefore less risky, and the return on investment is higher too. He didn’t get a chance to showcase his work inside the 10, as, let’s face it, that is always King Henry territory. What if Spears is really good? Also, at that price, you can just drop Spears after a few weeks if it’s Pollard, no sweat.
For any roulette enthusiasts, think of it this way: Pollard is like betting on two columns, and Spears is like betting black or red. Chances are better that you hit when you bet on 2/3 of the columns. But it’s a more expensive bet, and the return on the bet is lower. If you hit on black or red, you double your investment. I’m betting on Tyjae Spears in fantasy football.
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A Look Inside the Tennessee Titans
Editor’s Note: While Chris focused on Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Titans from Ryan Weisse.
Will Levis
Levis had two pretty good games last season and a whole lot of mediocre and bad ones. This is a new offense, so he could be worth a gamble, but he’s still more of a streaming option in 1-QB leagues.
DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins overcame bad QB play and still finished as a Top-25 WR in fantasy last season. There is more competition for targets but a better offensive scheme that will mirror Cincinatti’s. He still has gas in the tank, and another Top-30 season could be in the cards.
Calvin Ridley
Ridley played well enough in Jacksonville to get paid by Tennessee. It’s a similar situation to last season, where there is debate on who will be the WR1 for the team. This time though, unlike with Christian Kirk, the two WRs play a similar game. Ridley and Hopkins put up almost matching stat lines last year, and their career averages are eerily similar, too. We’ve seen this offensive scheme support two WRs, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, so look at these two as the budget-friendly version of the Cincinnati duo.
Tyler Boyd
Boyd is playing the same role in the same scheme from 2023. WR50 season incoming.
Treylon Burks
No.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Okonkwo didn’t live up to the massive hype we built for him last year, but he wasn’t terrible. He finished with 54 catches, 528 yards, and only one TD. With Henry out of town and the new RBs likely to be far worse in the redzone, we could see an improvement in every major category for Okonkwo, especially TDs. He’s worth a gamble at the end of your draft if you waited on TE but be prepared to stream the position.