In some aspects, the Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most frustrating teams in the NFL over the past several seasons. They’re loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, but for whatever reason, they’ve struggled to gain significant traction in the postseason.
Despite being identified as one of the best young quarterbacks in the league, Justin Herbert has only brought the Chargers to the playoffs once during his four-year career. Will the tides change in 2024 with a new coaching staff and a revamped offense? That remains to be seen.
According to most major sportsbooks, the Chargers’ season wins total over/under is 8.5. Given their recent track record, they would take a significant turnaround to hit the over on this line. Without further adieu, let’s get into some of the specifics of this team, starting with their new addition, J.K. Dobbins!
J.K. Dobbins 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
The Injury History
Dobbins has been a difficult player to evaluate over the past several seasons. When healthy, he looks to be one of the best backs in the league. Unfortunately for Dobbins, he’s spent much time on the sidelines lately, playing in just nine games over the past three years.
However, there is reason to believe that things could be looking up for him in Los Angeles despite him being on the mend from an Achilles tear. This injury was the kiss of death for athletes, especially running backs. Recent technologies and surgery techniques have given players a renewed shot at returning to normal, which is what we’re hoping for Dobbins in 2024.
A Fresh Start
The Chargers could make out like bandits in this deal if he looks anything like his rookie campaign with the Baltimore Ravens. He put up 805 rushing yards in 2020, averaging six yards per carry on 134 attempts. He also added nine touchdowns during that season.
With Herbert being far less of a rushing threat than Lamar Jackson, there’s a real chance that Dobbins could put up at least 1,000 rushing yards this year, given his potential volume. The Chargers were in the bottom 10 in the league last year in rushing attempts, mainly due to their inconsistency at the position.
More rushing attempts are a good sign for Herbert, as they could allow him to play freer in the passing game, giving him more time in the pocket to get better looks at his receivers.
Check out the No Punt Intended team breaking down the Chargers in this week’s episode!
A Possible Value in 2024
It will be interesting to see what the Chargers look like in 2024 as they build this team from the ground up. Can J.K Dobbins provide a meaningful impact on this team, both from an NFL and a fantasy football perspective?
While we might be intrigued about what Dobbins can do this year, if he doesn’t work out for some reason, you’re not likely to have a significant investment in him during your fantasy draft. He’s currently the RB53 in Underdog Best Ball drafts, which should give you a good idea of what the fantasy community thinks about him. You can draft Dobbins behind players like Jaylen Wright, Ty Chandler, Ray Davis, Antonio Gibson, and MarShawn Lloyd.
Considering that value, we’re excited to draft Dobbins this year. The Chargers will undoubtedly be better than in 2023, but there could still be some growing pains. If healthy, Dobbins could provide stability to a team that has lacked it for the past few seasons.
Be sure you’re following Andrew Elmquist on Twitter. You can also find more great fantasy football content here!
A Look Inside the Los Angeles Chargers
Editor’s Note: While Andrew focused on J.K. Dobbins in fantasy football, we don’t want to leave you hanging on the rest of the team. Here is a quick look at the other fantasy-relevant Chargers from Josh Hudson.
Justin Herbert
The consensus on Herbert is that because Greg Roman is now the offensive coordinator, passing volume will be scarce. Has anyone stopped to consider Roman is merely tasked with fixing a stagnant running game, and Herbert will still sling it the way he had through his first four seasons? Herbert has averaged 39 passing attempts per game over his young career. Maybe a dip closer to 36 is likely, but he’s still a low-end QB1 in fantasy.
Gus Edwards
With all due respect to my colleague Andrew, Edwards is the RB you want from the Chargers in fantasy this season. He’s currently going as the RB38 (11th round) in best ball drafts, and he’s coming off a season where he scored 13 rushing TDs. Combine that with his familiarity with Greg Roman’s system from their time together in Baltimore, and I’m certain you’re not looking at a Jamaal Williams-to-New Orleans situation that will inevitably disappoint.
Kimani Vidal
Everyone loves a hot-shot rookie, right? Vidal comes from a small school (Troy) but was immensely productive. He’s a sixth-round pick, so maybe it’s a fool’s bet. But when the only RBs in front of you are two free-agent signees (Edwards and Dobbins) and a former fourth-round pick who has shown to be utterly useless (Isaiah Spiller), he’s worth a late-round dart throw.
Josh Palmer
As the de facto number one WR in this offense, it’s Palmer SZN in Los Angeles in 2024. He’s flashed over his first three seasons, taking on larger roles in the absence of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, and will be tasked with carrying the load again this season. Even if the target volume comes down a smidge due to Roman’s insistent on running the football 500 times a game, Palmer should see a steady six targets per game. And his 15.3 yards per reception last season prove he can be efficient with the opportunities he does get. Draft him as your WR5 (current ADP of WR61) and reap the benefits.
Quentin Johnston
After only one season, everyone is ready to cut bait on the once-promising former first-rounder from TCU. (I guess Jalen Reagor and Josh Doctson before him left a bad taste in our mouths.) But with a wide-open WR room, if not in 2024, it likely won’t happen. Johnston’s game is predicated on yards after the catch (YAC). When defenses get bludgeoned by a running game, it opens up opportunities in the screen game for plenty of YAC. ‘Tis the season for Johnston? It costs 13th-round prices to find out.
Ladd McConkey
The hot shot rookie everyone apparently loves, McConkey’s pre-draft work has the fantasy community buzzing. And that has led to him being more expensive in drafts than either Palmer or Johnston. Is that the right call? McConkey will likely start out behind those two in camp, but the pecking order is wide open for target distribution. The second-round pick isn’t expensive by any means (WR54 as of 5/28), so if you prefer the unknown versus the established at a cheaper cost, go right ahead.
Chargers TEs
Will Dissly signed for reasonable money this offseason, but he’s never been a big receiving threat. Hayden Hurst was brought in on a cheap one-year deal after a tumultuous 2023 in Carolina that saw him placed on IR after suffering from post-traumatic amnesia following a November concussion. He does, however, have experience in Roman’s offense, for whatever that’s worth. Stone Smartt and Donald Parham Jr. are the holdovers. You’re not wasting your time drafting any of these guys.