The Chicago Bears have the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. So, you’d THINK that would mean they had the worst team in the NFL… right? Not so fast. You see, the Bears only have that pick because they made a deal with the Carolina Panthers prior to the 2023 NFL Draft that netted them the Panther’s 2024 1st-round pick. And if there’s any team that needs their first-round pick more than the Panthers, I have yet to identify them.
Carolina had an abysmal 2023, firing their head coach, Frank Reich, before the conclusion of his first season in the role, and nothing ever got going on offense with rookie Bryce Young at QB.
From a fantasy football perspective, the only good thing that came from 2023 was the addition of Adam Thielen. The three-year deal he signed was ridiculed at the time, as he started last season at the age of 33. But the season he put together was historical.
Thielen became only the 6th WR in NFL history to have 100 or more receptions at age 33 or older. And for a sense of whether Thielen can potentially do it again, only Larry Fitzgerald and Jerry Rice did it more than once. (Both accomplished this in their age 33 and 34 seasons.)
Signing Miles Sanders away from the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles was supposed to jumpstart their running game. They ended up finishing worse in 2023 (20th) than in 2022 (10th). In all, their offense finished last in passing and total offense and tied for last in scoring.
The Panthers are the literal definition of the phrase, “The only way to go is up.” They started the offseason with holes in the front office and on the sidelines. They signed former star LB Dan Morgan to be the team’s new GM; they brought on Tampa Bay OC Dave Canales to be the team’s new HC; and retained DC Ejiro Evero.
For everything the offense couldn’t do, the defense held its own. They finished 4th in total defense and 3rd in passing defense, despite struggling in creating turnovers (only 11 all season) and run defense (23rd).
With their coaching staff in tact, how will Dan Morgan build this team in Dave Canales’ image? I have a few ideas.
Use their cap space wisely
The Panthers traded up to number 1 overall in 2023, sacrificing their number 1 WR (DJ Moore), their 2023 1st and 2nd, and their 2024 1st. That’s a move you make when you think you’re a QB away from competing. Except they aren’t. And they don’t even have a bevy of cap space to help fill their plethora of holes.
The first thing the team needs to do is identify their building blocks and if they even have any on their team. And looking at their list of free agents, the only one that meets that criteria is EDGE Brian Burns.
Remember Burns? He’s the guy the Panthers could’ve traded to the Rams for two first-round picks last year. The Panthers said he was untouchable. Burns delivered a subpar season, with nine sacks and 40 total pressures. Is that worth $20+ million annually? If the Panthers don’t think so and let him walk, they’re looking at a 3rd round compensation pick in 2025, at best, in return.
None of their other free agents are likely to return for any significant contract. That means the Panthers will have to focus on free agency and the Draft to rebuild this team as quickly as possible. And since the Panthers only have six picks in April, looks like they’ll be pretty active in free agency. But with only $24.7 million or so available, they need to be strategic.
I see two moves that new GM Dan Morgan should look to do immediately to create some more cap space:
Extend DT Derrick Brown
In short, Derrick Brown is a stud. He’s the only DT in NFL history to ever record 100 or more combined tackles in a season. He also led the team in total pressures in 2023. Elite DTs are getting paid heavily these days, but any kind of extension will lower Brown’s $11.665 million cap number in 2024. He’s also only 25. Brown and CB Jaycee Horn are the building blocks of this defense. Extend Brown this offseason and Horn in 2025 — when only Bryce Young and Taylor Moton have cap hits over $10 million.
Speaking of Moton —
Restructure Taylor Moton’s contract
The Panthers currently have only 24 players under contract for 2025, which translates into approximately $129.5 million in available cap space. It’s not usually smart to kick cap numbers into future seasons, but the Panthers will need that huge number when negotiating contracts this offseason.
Moton signed his five-year extension in 2021. He’s entering his age-30 season in 2024. While he’s hardly elite at RT, he’s not so much a liability that should warrant the team outright releasing him when they have very few competent offensive linemen on the roster.
But his cap numbers in 2024 and 2025 are $29.7 million each season. A restructuring with a one-year extension can lower his 2024 cap hit while moving some money into 2026. Adding two more years could create even more, but the juice may not be worth the squeeze at that point.
Just these two moves alone could add upwards of $20 million or more to their available cap space in 2024. So what should Carolina do with this available cap space?
Place the Franchise Tag on Brian Burns
Look, as underwhelming as Burns may have been in 2023, pass rushers don’t grow on trees. Use the tag to negotiate a long-term deal with Burns, or use it to trade him and get something more than a potential 3rd round comp pick in return.
The current tag for Defensive Ends, according to OverTheCap, is $20.205 million. This is why the two moves I highlighted above are important. Without them, placing the tag on Burns leaves the Panthers with roughly $9 million left. And that’s not going to be enough for the next move that absolutely needs to be done–
Sign WR Mike Evans
Honestly, “Mike Evans” can read “the best available WR.” No disrespect to Adam Thielen, but the Panthers need a true number-one WR for Bryce Young to target.
By all accounts, Mike Evans and the Bucs are “far apart” on a new deal to keep the stud WR in Tampa. It’s also entirely possible that Tampa does something similar to what the Giants did a year ago: sign their QB — in this case, Baker Mayfield — to a new deal and place the franchise tag on their star position player.
I know the prevailing thought is that Bengals WR Tee Higgins makes the most sense for the Panthers, given he’s younger and has the ability to be a team’s number one target. But Evans’ connection to new Panthers HC Dave Canales makes this move make more sense in both the short-term and long-term.
Yes, Evans will be 31 when the season begins. But are we sure Evans is slowing down? He’s had 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career. He’s had 46 TDs over the last four seasons. And he just put up 1,255 yards and 13 TDs for Canales last season.
Canales can use Evans and Thielen the same way he used Evans and Godwin last year and work in 2nd-year WR Jonathan Mingo the same way he used then-rookie Trey Palmer last year.
Evans will likely cost $20+ million a season, but with a three-year deal that’s really a two-year deal, they can pay Evans and get a little break in 2024 if they move most of the payday to 2025 for cap purposes.
This is the part of the story where people can insert the Joe Burrow–Ja’Marr Chase–Penei Sewell meme. Because, honestly, without an offensive line, Evans isn’t getting many targets with Bryce Young on his back.
Bargain shop at offensive line
I’m pretty sure this is literally the worst thing you can tell a fan base that is hurting for quality offensive line play. But with little to no elite options at any offensive line position hitting free agency, don’t overpay for poor play.
There are several options available who were previously high draft picks that have struggled to make an impact. Players like Josh Jones from Houston, Dalton Risner from Minnesota, and Ezra Cleveland from Jacksonville come to mind. Could Canales and his staff resurrect their careers? Small one-year deals would make a ton of sense as they look to beef up the interior of their line. And then continue to add to the mix via the NFL Draft.
Is all this enough to help the Panthers score fantasy points?
Dave Canales has a lot of work ahead of him. And he’s working for an impatient owner. Lucky for Canales, he received a six-year contract. That alone should mean that the team will have patience as he tries to pull them out of the NFL cellar. And if it does, 2024 still may not result in much offense, no matter the moves that I laid out in this feature.
But if we use the 2023 Bucs as a blueprint, Canales can get some respectable production out of the likes of Mike Evans, Adam Thielen, Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, and Miles Sanders (who, if he’s released, will likely be a post-June 1st cut to push as much of the cap hit to 2025 as they can). But it all starts with the offensive line, as much as we fantasy managers don’t want to hear that.
Canales manufactured a QB9 season out of Baker Mayfield. The rest of the Bucs offense produced the RB4, WR7, and WR28. Adding Evans to the Panthers’ offense and getting Bryce Young even to QB15 would be a start in the right direction. Add in another productive season for Thielen and Miles Sanders’ return to mediocrity. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be too mad about that.
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